360 Finance Stock: Generous Dividend Amid Persistent Downtrend

Shares of 360 Finance (Qfin Holdings) are approaching a significant dividend distribution while continuing to trade beneath critical technical levels. The company’s latest quarterly results delivered a mixed performance, ultimately triggering a sharp sell-off in the stock.

Technical Weakness Prevails

The stock is currently trading around $29.12, positioning it well below its key moving averages and confirming a sustained bearish trend.

• 50-day moving average: $37.34
• 200-day moving average: $40.31

Trading volume of 1.4 million shares last Friday also remained below the average of 2.19 million, a pattern often seen in the period preceding a dividend event.

Mixed Q2 Earnings and a Dismal Forecast

The Q2 2025 financial report presented solid fundamental results but was ultimately overshadowed by a disappointing forward outlook.

• Total net revenue: RMB 5.22 billion (approx. $728 million)
• Net income: RMB 1.73 billion (approx. $241.6 million)
• Total loan facilitation growth: +16.1% year-over-year

The positive figures were quickly negated by management’s guidance, which projects a quarter-over-quarter decline in EPS between 2.7% and 14% for Q3. This pessimistic forecast precipitated a 12% plunge in the share price following the announcement.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying 360 Finance?

Substantial Dividend Payout Approaches

Despite the negative price action, shareholders have a substantial capital return to anticipate. The FinTech company has declared a semi-annual cash dividend of $0.38 per ordinary share, or $0.76 per ADS (American Depositary Share). This translates to an attractive annualized dividend yield of 5.22%.

• Ex-dividend date: September 8, 2025
• Payment date for ordinary shares: September 25, 2025
• Approximate payment date for ADS: September 30, 2025

This consistent return of capital to investors highlights the company’s continued ability to generate robust cash flows.

Divergent Views from Analysts

Market experts are divided on the stock’s prospects. JPMorgan maintains a bullish “Overweight” rating with a $65 price target. In contrast, Wall Street Zen recently downgraded its recommendation from “Buy” to “Hold.” The consensus price target stands at $51.73, suggesting significant potential upside from current levels, though the weak guidance casts doubt on this optimism.

Institutional Investors Show Discord

Institutional ownership remains high at 74.81% of shares, but recent activity points to significant disagreement among major funds. American Century Investments decreased its stake by 17.8%, while Mirae Asset Global Investments dramatically increased its position by an astounding 10,812.1%. HSBC also sold 23,072 shares. These conflicting moves reflect broader uncertainty regarding the future trajectory of the FinTech sector.

The central question for investors is whether the appeal of the high dividend yield will be enough to offset concerns driven by the company’s gloomy earnings forecast.