Tesla’s Critical Week: Tax Credit Expiration Meets Pivotal Delivery Report

The clock is ticking for Tesla as a significant chapter in U.S. electric vehicle incentives closes today. September 30th marks the expiration of a multi-billion dollar federal tax credit program that has substantially boosted the automaker’s sales in recent weeks. This development raises crucial questions about what follows this government-induced demand surge, with answers potentially reshaping the company’s stock valuation within days.

Quarterly Deliveries: The Ultimate Test

All attention now turns to October 2nd, when Tesla is scheduled to release its third-quarter production and delivery figures. These numbers will provide the first concrete evidence of how effectively the tax credit stimulated consumer demand. Market expectations are running high, with analysts projecting approximately 447,000 vehicle deliveries—a significant jump from the 384,000 units reported in the second quarter. However, the year-over-year comparison presents a sobering perspective, as Tesla delivered 463,000 vehicles during the same period in 2024.

Despite these delivery concerns, Tesla’s stock has demonstrated remarkable resilience, posting gains exceeding 30% over the past month. This apparent contradiction between delivery anxieties and share price performance highlights a fundamental shift in how investors are evaluating the company.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?

The Final Rush for EV Incentives

A $7,500 federal electric vehicle subsidy program concludes on September 30th, creating unprecedented demand for Tesla’s models as consumers scramble to secure vehicles eligible for the expiring benefit. An intriguing regulatory nuance from the IRS has further intensified this buying frenzy: customers can lock in the tax credit by placing binding orders before the deadline, even if actual vehicle delivery occurs later. This provision suggests the sales momentum generated by the incentive could extend well into the fourth quarter.

Beyond Automobiles: The AI Valuation Premium

While current vehicle sales dominate headlines, bullish investors are increasingly focused on Tesla’s technological ambitions. The investment firm Wedbush recently elevated its price target to $600 per share, justifying this optimistic valuation not through electric vehicle prospects, but rather Tesla’s expanding initiatives in artificial intelligence, autonomous robotaxis, and the humanoid Optimus robot.

This strategic repositioning signals a broader narrative shift—from traditional automaker to advanced technology enterprise. The critical question facing investors is whether this futuristic vision can sufficiently offset an anticipated sales decline following the tax credit’s expiration. The answer will profoundly influence not only near-term stock performance but also the company’s long-term strategic direction.