NuCana’s Survival Battle: Clinical Promise Meets Technical Peril

NuCana plc finds itself navigating turbulent waters as promising clinical developments clash with concerning technical indicators. The biopharmaceutical company’s latest quarterly results reveal a company simultaneously strengthening its financial foundation while its stock faces severe market pressure.

Financial Stabilization Through Dilution

The third quarter of 2025 brought significant improvement to NuCana’s financial position, with the company reporting a dramatically reduced net loss of just £0.3 million compared to £4.5 million during the same period last year. Liquidity surged to £25.2 million, primarily driven by capital raises through an at-the-market (ATM) offering program.

This financial maneuvering has extended NuCana’s operational runway substantially, with management projecting sufficient cash resources to fund operations well into 2029. However, this stability came at a cost to existing shareholders. The company secured £19 million through a July capital raise, following a May offering that raised $38.4 million, resulting in significant shareholder dilution.

Clinical Pipeline Shows Compelling Results

NuCana presented impressive data from its flagship candidates NUC-7738 and NUC-3373 at the 2025 ESMO conference, demonstrating potential breakthroughs in cancer treatment.

NUC-7738 exhibited synergistic activity with PD-1 inhibitors in organoid models, suggesting a promising combination approach for melanoma patients who have developed resistance to PD-1 inhibitors. The company is now recruiting 28 additional patients for NUC-7738 studies and planning discussions with the FDA regarding registration strategy.

Even more compelling results emerged from NUC-3373 studies, where one melanoma patient continues to show progression-free survival after 23 months with an 81% reduction in target lesions. Another patient with bladder cancer achieved a complete 100% reduction in lesions and has remained in treatment for over 15 months.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying NuCana?

Strategic Patent Strengthens Global Position

Adding to its intellectual property portfolio, NuCana secured a composition-of-matter patent for NUC-7738 in China on November 5, 2025. This represents a crucial component in the company’s global IP strategy, which now encompasses over 85 patents worldwide and positions NuCana strategically within the massive Chinese pharmaceutical market.

Key Fundamental Developments:
* Net loss substantially reduced to £0.3 million
* Cash runway secured through 2029
* NUC-7738 demonstrates synergy with PD-1 inhibitors
* NUC-3373 shows sustained response rates of 81% to 100%
* Key Chinese patent granted for NUC-7738

Technical Picture Contradicts Fundamental Progress

Despite these positive fundamental developments, NuCana’s stock performance tells a different story. After a minor 1.21% rally to $3.35, the shares have declined sharply over the past two weeks, shedding 11.84% of their value.

The technical outlook appears particularly concerning, with all major indicators flashing sell signals. Both short-term and long-term moving averages currently recommend selling, while momentum indicators broke below the zero line as early as October 20. With high volatility persisting and an expected opening price of $3.31, investors face the critical question of whether NuCana’s clinical successes can ultimately overcome this technical deterioration.

The divergence between the company’s operational progress and its market performance creates a complex investment thesis, leaving market participants to weigh promising clinical data against concerning technical signals in determining NuCana’s survival prospects.