Commerzbank shares tumbled nearly 6% to €31.40 on Tuesday, marking one of the DAX’s steepest declines as investors braced for weak quarterly results. The Frankfurt-based bank is set to release its Q2 earnings, with analysts forecasting a 12% revenue increase to nearly €3 billion but a sharp net profit drop to €369 million—down by a third year-over-year. The decline stems from shrinking interest margins, a key revenue driver, now expected to fall to just over €2 billion. Restructuring costs, including job cuts, further dented profitability, though these measures aim to bolster long-term stability.
Takeover Speculations Fuel Volatility
The stock’s recent 14-year high of €33.40—part of a 2023 rally that more than doubled its value—has intensified scrutiny over whether Commerzbank can justify its valuation. Market nerves were compounded by rumors of a potential takeover by Italian rival UniCredit, already its largest shareholder with a 20% stake. While European bank stocks broadly rose amid improved earnings forecasts, Commerzbank’s pre-earnings selloff suggests investors are hedging bets. Today’s results will determine if the rally resumes or if the slide signals a turning point.
