A Bold Forecast Sets NewtekOne Apart from Market Consensus

While shares of Newtek Business Services Corp. (NewtekOne) have faced persistent weakness in recent months, a notable analyst projection has emerged that challenges prevailing market sentiment. Investment firm B. Riley has issued a strong buy recommendation, accompanied by a highly optimistic earnings forecast for the 2026 fiscal year that significantly outpaces current consensus estimates. This raises a pivotal question regarding the financial services provider’s capacity to meet these ambitious targets.

B. Riley’s analysis presents a 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $2.52. This figure stands in stark contrast to the broader market consensus, which currently sits at just $1.93. Should NewtekOne achieve this forecast, it would represent a substantial leap from its own projected 2025 EPS, which is guided to land between $2.10 and $2.50.

This confidence appears to be at least partially rooted in the company’s operational history. NewtekOne has a demonstrated track record of exceeding quarterly expectations. As recently as the end of July, the company reported quarterly results that surpassed estimates, posting an EPS of $0.52 against a forecast of $0.50. This consistent ability to outperform forms a foundational element of the more bullish long-term outlook.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Newtek Business Services?

However, the equity’s technical performance tells a different story. Despite the positive analyst commentary, the stock continues to struggle with a lack of momentum. Over the past twelve months, it has traded within a range of $9.12 to $15.49 and currently resides notably below its key moving averages. This price action suggests that the market has yet to fully price in the potential for a significant earnings acceleration.

The central investment dilemma now rests on whether NewtekOne can translate its historical operational execution into the outsized growth predicted by B. Riley, thereby reversing its current negative technical trajectory.