Tesla Shares Poised for Rally as UBS Raises Delivery Forecast

Tesla has received unexpected support from one of the world’s leading investment banks, UBS, which has significantly upgraded its third-quarter delivery projections for the electric vehicle manufacturer. This revised outlook could provide substantial momentum for the company’s stock price, though questions remain about whether this optimism extends beyond temporary tax incentives.

Revised Estimates Signal Strong Quarterly Performance

Market experts at UBS have increased their delivery forecast to 475,000 vehicles for the current quarter, representing a substantial jump from their previous estimate of 431,000 units. This new figure stands approximately 8% above Wall Street’s consensus expectations and would mark a 24% increase compared to the previous quarter’s performance.

The bank attributes this positive revision primarily to unexpectedly robust performance in the United States market. UBS researchers suggest that buyers are rushing to capitalize on the expiring $7,500 federal tax credit, potentially driving quarterly figures to their highest level since mid-2023, if not establishing a new record entirely.

Chinese Market Shows Renewed Strength

Beyond the U.S. market, Tesla is experiencing encouraging developments in the critical Chinese marketplace. Recent data indicates that 17,300 new Tesla vehicles were registered during the third week of September, reflecting a 12.7% weekly increase and reaching the highest level in twelve weeks.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?

Additional context from the Chinese market includes:
* Deutsche Bank projections anticipating approximately 72,000 total September deliveries in China
* This would represent a monthly increase of roughly 27%
* The newly introduced six-seater Model Y L appears to be a significant growth driver

Divergent Analyst Views Highlight Market Uncertainty

Despite these positive indicators, Tesla’s valuation remains highly contested among financial institutions. While UBS has raised its delivery forecast, the bank maintains its “sell” recommendation with a price target of $215, suggesting substantial potential downside.

This contrasts sharply with Piper Sandler’s recent assessment, which elevated its price target to $500. The majority of market analysts, however, maintain “hold” positions on the stock. This extreme divergence in professional opinion underscores fundamental questions about Tesla’s current valuation: has the stock become overextended following recent gains, or is this merely the beginning of a sustained upward trajectory?