Upstart Holdings Approaches Critical Earnings Test

The upcoming quarterly report from Upstart Holdings represents a pivotal moment for the AI-driven lending platform’s stock performance. Following a substantial 7% decline last Friday, investor attention has intensified around the November 4 earnings release. Market participants are questioning whether the company can surpass expectations and reverse its current downward trajectory.

Valuation Debate Intensifies Amid Price Decline

A sharp division exists within the investment community regarding Upstart’s valuation metrics. The central question remains whether the current valuation—trading at 5 times sales and 20 times projected 2026 earnings—represents an attractive entry point following recent declines, or if the equity remains overvalued compared to other fintech competitors. Technical indicators reveal the stock trading below its short-term moving averages, signaling continued weakness in the near term.

Analyst Error Amplifies Market Volatility

Recent turbulence stemmed from a significant reporting error when investment bank BTIG initially cited a default rate exceeding 11% for August, later revising this figure to 6.2%. Despite the correction, the damage to investor sentiment had already occurred, demonstrating the stock’s heightened sensitivity to negative headlines. The subsequent selloff highlighted how vulnerable the shares remain to unfavorable news developments.

Performance metrics reveal the extent of recent challenges:
* 34.5% decline over the past three months
* Current trading level of $48.58 following Friday’s losses
* Substantially below opening price levels from October

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Upstart Holdings?

November Earnings: Potential Turning Point

The early November financial report carries exceptional weight for Upstart’s near-term direction. Market expectations appear elevated across key performance indicators:

Anticipated Third Quarter Results:
* Earnings per share: $0.42 (representing 800% year-over-year growth)
* Revenue: $281 million (73% annual increase)
* Full-year 2025 projection: $1.66 earnings per share (930% growth)

The critical question remains whether these impressive growth figures will satisfy market participants. The company previously surprised investors by reaching profitability in the second quarter while originating $2.8 billion in loans.

The coming weeks leading to the earnings announcement will determine whether Upstart’s fundamental strengths can overcome the current bearish trend or if disappointing results will extend the downward momentum.