The shares of IREN find themselves caught in a powerful crosscurrent. A landmark multi-billion dollar agreement with Microsoft promises to establish the firm as a major player in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Simultaneously, a downturn in the Bitcoin market, with the cryptocurrency falling below the pivotal $90,000 threshold, is exerting significant downward pressure on the stock. Closing at $42.26 this Friday, the equity registered a decline of nearly three percent. The central question for investors is whether IREN can successfully decouple from the crypto market’s influence.
Strong Fundamentals Clash with Market Sentiment
The company’s recent financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, released on November 7, presented a mixed picture. Revenue surged by 28 percent to $240.3 million, surpassing market forecasts. However, earnings per share disappointed, coming in at just $0.01 against analyst expectations of $0.14. This resulted in an immediate sell-off that drove the share price down by twelve percent.
The current weakness in Bitcoin is compounding these challenges. As a asset with high beta correlation to the crypto market, IREN’s stock often experiences reflexive selling when Bitcoin’s price declines, even though the company’s business model is now more diversified than pure-play miners like Mara Holdings or Riot Platforms.
A $9.7 Billion Lifeline from Microsoft
Despite the short-term headwinds, analysts at Canaccord Genuity remain bullish. Over the weekend, they reaffirmed their “Buy” recommendation, setting a price target of $70 per share. This implies a potential upside of more than 65 percent from current levels. Their confidence is rooted in the transformative AI cloud contract secured with Microsoft in early November.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IREN?
Valued at approximately $9.7 billion, this multi-year partnership is projected to be a cornerstone in IREN’s plan to achieve annual revenue of $3.4 billion by the end of 2026. The company is strategically pivoting from a business focused solely on Bitcoin mining to a hybrid model that balances crypto operations with high-performance computing (HPC) services.
The Market’s Valuation Challenge
A key dilemma for the market is accurately appraising IREN’s new direction. Investors are grappling with a “sum-of-the-parts” valuation, weighing the cyclical and volatile nature of Bitcoin mining against the predictable, long-term cash flows expected from the AI segment. The average analyst price target sits around $80.57, suggesting that many experts believe the market is still underestimating the profound impact of the Microsoft deal.
The company is building its capacity for this future with a growing fleet of NVIDIA H100 and H200 GPUs, all powered by 100 percent renewable energy. This infrastructure is crucial for securing additional long-term contracts with other technology hyperscalers.
From a technical analysis perspective, the $41.90 support level is critical. A breach could see the stock test the $40 mark, while a sustained move above $45 would signal potential for a technical recovery. The market will be closely monitoring updates on the expansion projects in Childress and Prince George, which are essential for fulfilling the company’s ambitious hyperscaler agreements. As the proportion of revenue derived from AI services increases, IREN is expected to gradually reduce its correlation with the price of Bitcoin.
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