Eli Lilly’s Soaring Price Target: Analyst Sees Major Upside in Obesity Pipeline

The investment case for Eli Lilly continues to strengthen, even after the pharmaceutical giant surpassed a $1 trillion market valuation. A substantial new price target from Bernstein analysts is generating significant buzz, highlighting a previously underappreciated asset in the competitive weight-loss drug market. This development raises a pivotal question: is the company poised for its next major growth phase, or is the current market enthusiasm becoming excessive?

Strategic Pivot and Pipeline Progress

Eli Lilly is demonstrating its ambition to be more than a single-product company through recent clinical and strategic moves. The firm announced advancements in its oncology portfolio and type 1 diabetes treatments within the past day. Simultaneously, management is executing an interesting strategic shift: replacing current pharmacy benefits manager CVS Caremark with the provider Rightway for its 23,000 U.S. employees. This transition toward more transparent pricing models aligns with the company’s broader strategy of establishing more direct pathways to patients.

Bernstein’s Bullish Revision

The source of renewed investor optimism stems from Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen, who on Tuesday dramatically raised her price target from $1,100 to $1,300 per share. Her central thesis maintains that the market continues to underestimate the enormous potential of Lilly’s next-generation medications. While current injectable treatments are already generating billions in revenue, the oral compound Orforglipron is positioned as the true disruptor. This pill-based weight loss treatment could demonstrate efficacy comparable to injections while offering significantly improved convenience for patients. Breen characterizes this evolving opportunity as having the potential for a “non-stop rally.”

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Eli Lilly?

Insider Activity Amid Record Performance

The sustained upward trajectory is clearly visible in the market data: shares reached a fresh 52-week high of 959.50 euros in recent trading. However, this optimistic picture includes a note of caution. Transaction disclosures reveal that major shareholder “Lilly Endowment” capitalized on the favorable market conditions, divesting shares valued at approximately $111.5 million. While such sales often fund philanthropic initiatives, the substantial size of this transaction warrants investor attention.

All eyes now turn toward the anticipated year-end 2025 milestone: the expected submission of the weight-loss pill Orforglipron for FDA approval. A successful regulatory outcome for this key asset could rapidly transform the new $1,300 price target from ambitious projection to tangible reality.