After facing significant pressure in the third quarter, shares of Progressive are showing renewed signs of strength. A newly announced strategic alliance and encouraging analyst sentiment could potentially pull the insurance stock out of its downtrend. However, the persistent selling activity by corporate insiders presents a contrasting narrative that investors must weigh.
Analyst Outlook Turns Positive
Market experts are beginning to spot potential in Progressive, even as some investors remain wary following October’s quarterly disappointment. Analysts at Roth Capital have lifted their price target to $260, pointing to an anticipated 13 percent upside from recent levels. An even more optimistic independent analysis suggests a fair value of $385 per share, indicating a strong belief that the current market price fails to reflect the company’s underlying fundamental strength.
Institutional Accumulation vs. Insider Selling
A clear divergence in sentiment is emerging between different classes of investors. While institutions are building their stakes, company insiders are capitalizing on the price recovery. Chief Investment Officer Steven Broz recently sold shares valued at over $300,000. This transaction is part of a broader pattern, with insiders collectively disposing of $24 million in stock over the past twelve months. On the opposing side, institutional players including Summit Global Investments and XTX Topco have substantially increased their holdings in the previous quarter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Progressive?
Digital Foray into Commercial Insurance
The recent positive momentum appears driven by a strategic initiative. Progressive’s partnership with Coterie Insurance marks a concerted push into the profitable small and midsize business sector. Through the BusinessQuote Explorer® platform, the insurer is now offering specialized commercial policies—a strategic move within the $100 billion commercial insurance market. This digital expansion holds the potential to deliver sustained margin improvement for the core business.
Technical Perspective
From a chart analysis standpoint, the equity is currently testing a resistance level at $230.74. A decisive and sustained breakout above this threshold could pave the way for further gains, while support at $225.65 acts as a crucial buffer. The coming weeks will reveal whether institutional buying power can sufficiently absorb the supply from insider sales.
All eyes are now on the next monthly report, due in mid-December. The critical question remains: Will Progressive meet expectations for premium revenue growth, or will this recovery attempt falter?
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