A landmark shift in strategy is underway at Meta Platforms Inc. The social media behemoth is negotiating a chip supply agreement with Google valued in the billions of dollars—a move with the potential to disrupt the foundational infrastructure of the entire artificial intelligence sector. This development coincides with CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s increasingly aggressive capital allocation toward AI initiatives. Investors are now weighing a critical question: will this massive gamble generate substantial returns, or is the company overextending itself?
Soaring Costs Amid a Booming Core Business
Meta’s underlying advertising business continues to demonstrate remarkable strength. For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of $51.24 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase. Its AI-powered advertising tools have achieved an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $60 billion, providing clear evidence that early AI investments are already yielding financial benefits.
However, this success is shadowed by skyrocketing expenditures. Meta has raised its 2025 capital investment forecast to a range of $70 to $72 billion. Furthermore, Chief Financial Officer Susan Li cautioned that 2026 expenses are expected to be “significantly higher,” with some analysts projecting a figure approaching $100 billion.
This spending fuels colossal infrastructure projects, including:
* A $27 billion joint venture with Blue Owl Capital for the Hyperion data center in Louisiana, boasting 2 gigawatts of capacity.
* A $1.5 billion facility investment in Texas.
* A broader commitment to invest $600 billion in U.S. infrastructure by 2028.
The Google Chip Agreement: A Game-Changing Alliance
Reports from Reuters and The Information detail the scope of negotiations between Meta and Google. The deal centers on Meta’s purchase of Google’s custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for several billion dollars. Under the proposed plan, Meta would initially access TPUs via the Google Cloud platform starting in 2026, before transitioning to direct purchases of the chips for its own data centers from 2027 onward.
This agreement is particularly significant because Google has historically reserved its proprietary TPUs for internal use. The decision to supply a major rival marks a radical strategic departure. Google internally estimates the deal could capture up to 10% of Nvidia’s annual data center revenue, translating to multiple billions of dollars.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Meta?
Financial markets reacted swiftly to the news:
* Shares of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, advanced more than 4%, nearing a historic $4 trillion market valuation.
* Meta’s stock also traded higher.
* Nvidia shares declined approximately 3%.
Divergent Analyst Views: Strategic Masterstroke or Excessive Ambition?
Wall Street analysts are divided on Meta’s aggressive trajectory. Barton Crockett, an analyst at Rosenblatt, maintains a bullish stance. His price target of $1,117 per share implies an upside potential of over 70%. He argues that the $60 billion in AI-driven advertising revenue already offsets the increased investments, making the return on investment “unusually clear.”
Yet, a palpable sense of uncertainty remains. Since Zuckerberg announced the substantially elevated AI spending plans on October 29, Meta’s equity has declined by roughly 14%. The average analyst price target currently sits near $841, still above the present trading level but reflecting investor caution.
A Deliberately Diversified Hardware Approach
Meta is intentionally pursuing a multi-vendor chip strategy to avoid dependency. Alongside the potential Google TPU deal, the company is developing its own in-house chips, known as Meta Training and Inference Accelerators (MTIA). It also utilizes AMD’s MI300 accelerators and maintains its partnership with Nvidia. Rumors further suggest Meta has expressed interest in RISC-V processor designer Rivos.
This diversification is a calculated business necessity. In a market where every tech giant is voraciously seeking AI compute capacity, Meta aims to prevent supply chain vulnerability. The prospective agreement with Google is a strategic chess move, designed not only to secure vital capacity but also to challenge the current market dominance of Nvidia.
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