A stunning economic report from the United States sent shockwaves through global markets on Thursday, upending conventional expectations. The latest employment data, far from signaling a recovery, point to a sudden and sharp cooling of the U.S. economy—a development that has caught even the most pessimistic observers off guard. In a curious twist, while bets on interest rates have surged, the price of gold has responded in a counterintuitive manner. This leaves market participants questioning whether this is a momentary lull or a sign of bullish exhaustion.
Interest Rate Expectations Swing Dramatically
The gap between forecast and reality was stark. Market experts had anticipated job growth, but the ADP National Employment Report for November revealed an unexpected loss of 32,000 private sector jobs. This disappointing news places immense pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Futures markets reacted immediately. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a probability of approximately 90% for a benchmark interest rate cut in the coming week. Typically, such a scenario, coupled with the U.S. dollar falling to a two-month low, creates a perfect bullish environment for the non-yielding precious metal.
A Case of Profit-Taking Before the Fed?
Despite these seemingly ideal fundamental conditions, gold bulls have struggled to maintain upward momentum. The market is currently contending with a wave of profit-taking. Evidence suggests numerous traders are capitalizing on elevated valuations to secure gains ahead of the official Fed decision—a classic illustration of the “sell the news” dynamic.
Spot gold is currently trading at $4,229.00, reflecting a minor daily decline of 0.15%. The record high remains tantalizingly close, however. With a 52-week peak of $4,265 marked just on December 1, the price is less than one percent away from setting a new all-time high. Volatility persists as investors anxiously await upcoming inflation data.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Key Market Drivers:
- ADP Shock: A loss of 32,000 jobs versus forecasts for growth.
- Rate Shift: A December interest rate cut is now almost fully priced in by markets.
- Institutional Demand: Central banks were net purchasers of 53 tonnes of gold in October alone.
- Year-to-Date Performance: Gold has delivered a return exceeding 60% for 2025.
Long-Term Outlook: Further Gains Possible
Adding fuel to speculative fire, the World Gold Council (WGC) released its 2026 outlook today. It notes that 2025 is already destined for the history books with over 50 new record highs, but suggests the rally may not be over.
The WGC outlines scenarios where gold could advance further. Should the global economy enter a “doom loop”—a synchronized downturn—the metal could see additional upside of up to 30%. Even in a soft-landing scenario, further gains appear feasible. Only a strong reflationary environment would pose a serious threat to its current strength.
From a technical perspective, the setup remains compelling. The upward trend is considered intact as long as support around $4,190 holds. A decisive break above the $4,230 resistance level could pave a clear path toward retesting the recent record near $4,265. Investors should brace for potential turbulence in the sessions ahead as these critical levels are tested.
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