D-Wave Quantum Stock Surges on Analyst Optimism and Government Ambitions

Shares of D-Wave Quantum experienced a significant rally on Thursday, fueled by a combination of a bullish new analyst initiation and strategic plans to target the U.S. government sector. The market’s focus has shifted to whether this push into security and defense can accelerate the company’s growth trajectory.

Strategic Shift and Analyst Backing Drive Momentum

The primary catalyst for the upward move was Wedbush Securities initiating coverage on the stock. The firm assigned an “Outperform” rating and set a price target of $35. Based on a closing price of approximately $24.90, this implies a potential upside of around 40%.

This positive assessment joins other optimistic targets already in place. Evercore ISI maintains a $44 price target, while Mizuho’s $46 target sits at the higher end of the current range.

Concurrently, reports emerged that D-Wave is establishing a dedicated business unit focused on the U.S. government and national security. This structure is designed to more effectively capture growing demand for quantum-based applications in defense and intelligence—a sector viewed as both politically and technologically critical.

The market responded favorably to this dual narrative of analyst support and strategic repositioning. During the session, the stock reached a high of $25.84 before closing near $24.94. Trading volume was notably elevated at roughly 26.9 million shares, well above average levels.

Financial Performance: Rapid Growth Amid Substantial Losses

The recent stock momentum is underpinned by a business model exhibiting rapid revenue expansion, though it remains accompanied by significant losses—a pattern typical for the early-stage quantum computing industry.

For the third quarter, reported in early November, D-Wave increased its revenue to $3.74 million. This represents year-over-year growth of 105.6% and exceeded analyst expectations. For the first nine months of 2025, cumulative revenue reached $21.8 million, a surge of 235% compared to the prior year period.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?

Despite this robust growth, the company continues to report deep losses. The net loss for Q3 was approximately $140 million, highlighting that scaling the business remains a capital-intensive endeavor with a high cash burn rate.

Insider Activity and Sector Context

Over the 90-day period until mid-December, notable insider selling occurred. Insiders disposed of roughly 1.45 million shares with a total value nearing $39 million. However, the market absorbed this additional supply on Thursday without derailing the upward trend, as investor attention remained fixed on the company’s expansion prospects.

The broader quantum computing sector also advanced. Competitors including IonQ and Rigetti Computing gained about 3% and 2%, respectively, on December 18th. Following a brief period of weakness for tech stocks, this points to a sector-wide recovery.

Outlook: Government Contracts as a Potential Catalyst

Looking ahead to 2026, the focus turns to the potential for concrete U.S. government contracts. The new national security unit aims to streamline procurement processes for D-Wave’s annealing systems, thereby improving access to state budgets. The U.S. government’s increasing prioritization of “quantum supremacy” initiatives could provide structural tailwinds for the company.

The current analyst consensus remains largely positive. Overall, there are 15 “Buy” recommendations, alongside one “Hold” and one “Sell” rating. The average price target stands at $32.13. Wedbush’s $35 target sits slightly above this average but remains within the range of optimistic forecasts.

From a technical perspective, the stock has reclaimed the psychologically important zone around $24. If the momentum sparked by the Wedbush initiation persists, resistance levels between $27 and $28—tested earlier in December—will come into focus. Volatility is expected to stay elevated, a characteristic that aligns with the binary risk-reward profile of the quantum computing sector and suggests the possibility of significant short-term price swings in either direction.