The new year has opened with a challenging phase for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is currently trading near $89,700, struggling to breach the psychologically significant $90,000 threshold. This follows a volatile end to the previous year, creating a notable market dichotomy. Significant capital outflows from prominent spot ETFs are occurring simultaneously with declining exchange reserves and continued accumulation by corporate entities.
A Divergence Between ETF Flows and Supply Dynamics
Recent on-chain metrics present a potentially bullish counter-narrative to the current price stagnation. Key indicators suggest a tightening supply landscape:
* Exchange reserves have dwindled to a multi-year low of 2.75 million BTC. A reduction in coins held on trading platforms typically indicates lower immediate selling pressure.
* Network growth remains robust, with approximately 3.42 million new, non-empty wallets added in 2025.
* Corporate buying activity persists. Tether substantially increased its reserves in the fourth quarter, while Japanese firm Metaplanet added 4,279 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total to 35,102 BTC.
This collective activity points to Bitcoin being absorbed from the circulating supply, a classic precursor to scarcity.
Spot ETFs See Record Capital Exodus
The mood has been dampened by substantial withdrawals from U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs. These products faced a significant test at the close of 2025, experiencing net outflows of $1.29 billion between December 15 and 31 alone. Across the full months of November and December, outflows reached a record $4.57 billion, marking the largest capital retreat since the ETFs launched in early 2024.
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The broader picture, however, shows institutional commitment remains. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continues to hold a massive 770,791 BTC, valued at roughly $67.4 billion. On January 2, BlackRock moved 1,134 BTC (worth approximately $101 million) to Coinbase Prime, potentially for liquidity management, underscoring that long-term positions are being maintained despite short-term capital shifts.
Regulatory Shifts and Technical Crossroads
The regulatory environment continues to evolve. The U.S. Senate is scheduled to debate the comprehensive “CLARITY Act” in the second week of January, aiming to provide greater market clarity. Internationally, Turkmenistan legalized mining and trading effective January 1, 2026. Conversely, Russia is preparing stricter penalties for unregistered mining operations.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture. Market analysts identify a strong resistance zone between $90,000 and $95,000, where key moving averages converge. Support is seen around the $80,000 level. The Average Directional Index (ADX), currently at a high 65.2, signals that the present consolidation phase is likely to resolve soon. The ultimate direction may hinge on macroeconomic factors; the Federal Reserve recently injected $74.6 billion in repo liquidity—its largest such operation since 2020. Historically, such monetary interventions have provided support for risk assets.
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