Bitcoin’s Ascent Meets Formidable Resistance Near $100,000

Bitcoin has entered the new year with considerable momentum, fueled primarily by a resurgence in ETF inflows. However, this upward drive has encountered a significant barrier just below the $100,000 threshold. While U.S. equities and precious metals have recently shown weakness, the leading cryptocurrency has demonstrated relative resilience. The critical question for the market is whether the confluence of robust ETF demand, stabilizing on-chain metrics, and improved mining profitability can generate sufficient force for the next leg upward.

Institutional Demand Emerges as Primary Catalyst

The most powerful driver in recent sessions has undeniably originated from the spot Bitcoin ETF arena. Following notable outflows at the start of the year, the trend for U.S.-based funds reversed decisively within a handful of trading days.

Between January 13 and 15 alone, approximately $1.7 billion flowed into these products. A standout development was the performance of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which attracted $648 million on January 15. This single fund captured about 77% of the total daily inflows. ETFs from other providers, including Fidelity, ARK 21Shares, and Grayscale, also registered noticeable capital additions.

Analysts at JPMorgan project that cryptocurrency markets could surpass the already substantial net inflows of roughly $130 billion seen in the previous year by 2026. This outlook suggests that institutional interest in regulated Bitcoin vehicles remains strong and is likely intensifying rather than diminishing.

Price Action: Consolidation After a Rally

Following a dynamic surge from the $90,000 zone to a new yearly high in mid-January, Bitcoin has relinquished a portion of those gains. The asset is currently trading at $95,584.83. While this places it about 23% below its 52-week peak, it remains comfortably above the 50-day moving average—a technical indication that the broader uptrend is still intact.

This recent pullback coincides with a period of weakness for gold, silver, and major U.S. stock indices. The modest rebound in Bitcoin’s price within the $94,000 to $95,000 range demonstrates renewed buyer interest at that level. From a chart perspective, the $98,000 to $100,000 zone now emerges as the next significant resistance area to watch.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Reduced Selling Pressure

Blockchain data presents a mixed but generally constructive picture. Daily transaction counts in mid-January stood at just over 360,000, below the peak levels of December 2025. Nevertheless, the network continues to process high volume without signs of congestion or a sharp drop in usage.

The behavior of long-term holders offers particularly insightful signals:

• Long-term investors are realizing net profits averaging around 12,800 BTC per week—significantly lower than the peak weekly figures exceeding 100,000 BTC during the 2025 sell-off phase.
• Large addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC (often called “whales”) have reduced their selling pressure as 2026 begins.
• Smaller investors with balances under 1 BTC have been accumulating coins since mid-November.

Additionally, while the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, the pace of selling from U.S. entities has slowed noticeably. Market observers interpret this as a sign that the panic-driven sales from the latter half of 2025 are subsiding, allowing the market to transition into a calmer phase.

Derivatives Market Reflects Cautious Optimism

Activity in the derivatives space paints a picture of measured confidence. The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures has returned to levels last seen in April 2025, suggesting participants are taking on more risk without veering into speculative excess.

Notable developments in this sector include:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

• A heavy concentration of options positions in call options expiring in late January with a strike price of $100,000.
• Funding rates for perpetual futures have fallen to their lowest point since October 2025, indicating elevated short activity.

The recent push toward $96,000 was partly triggered by short coverings totaling roughly $270 million after the price surpassed the $95,300 mark. However, because this move occurred alongside relatively thin derivatives volume, the market remains vulnerable should the spot-driven demand impulse fade.

Mining Sector Sees Profitability Rebound

The severe stress test for many miners in the second half of 2025 appears to be over, for now. According to a recent JPMorgan analysis, the 14 U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners and operators added approximately $13 billion in market capitalization during the first two weeks of January, bringing their aggregate valuation to about $62 billion.

Key profitability metrics show improvement:

• The “hashprice” metric, representing revenue per unit of computing power, has increased by 11% since late December.
• Miners’ gross margins improved by roughly 300 basis points to around 47%.
• The network’s hash rate declined by about 2% over the same period, slightly easing competition and boosting earnings per exahash.

U.S.-listed firms now control approximately 419 exahash, or about 41% of the global computing power—a new record high. Some players are also diversifying their business models; for instance, Riot Platforms saw double-digit gains after a leasing deal with AMD, which the market interpreted as a move into additional revenue streams within AI infrastructure.

Regulatory and Security Developments

The regulatory landscape continues to evolve. In the United States, a draft of the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” was introduced on January 13. The proposed legislation aims to provide clearer definitions for when a digital token should be classified as a security (under SEC jurisdiction) versus a commodity (under CFTC jurisdiction).

However, further consideration of the draft in the Senate has been postponed for now. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly stated that his company cannot support the proposal in its current form. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the timeline for passage remains uncertain, meaning the regulatory fog is unlikely to lift significantly in the near term.

Concurrently, a technical risk is gaining attention: potential vulnerabilities to future quantum computing attacks. On January 12, the company BTQ Technologies launched its “Bitcoin Quantum” testnet to address potential weaknesses. The concern stems from the fact that approximately 6.26 million BTC—a value exceeding $2 trillion—are currently considered highly exposed because their public keys are visible on the ledger. This situation increases the long-term pressure to develop quantum-resistant standards.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels to Watch

Sentiment indicators confirm a brighter tone in the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed to 61 (“Greed”) during the recent rally, signaling clear risk appetite compared to the cautious stance at the start of January. Previously negative stablecoin flows are also gradually turning positive, which is viewed as fresh buying power for crypto assets.

Several pivotal factors will shape the outlook in the coming weeks:

• The psychologically crucial $100,000 level, where a large block of call options is concentrated.
• Whether the strong ETF inflows persist beyond mid-January and become structural.
• The progress of the U.S. regulatory process surrounding the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
• The current cost basis for short-term holders, which sits near $98,300 and acts as a key confidence threshold.

In summary, Bitcoin finds itself in a transitional phase in mid-January 2026. The intense selling pressure from the second half of 2025 has visibly eased, structural capital inflows are increasing, and miners are operating with more comfortable margins. At the same time, the price is advancing into a historically dense supply zone between $93,000 and $110,000. A sustained breakout above the short-term holder cost basis near $98,300 would provide a far more solid foundation for a move toward the psychologically significant $100,000 mark than was present just weeks ago.