Investors in hydrogen technology firm Nel ASA are focusing on two critical events set to define the company’s trajectory as it moves into late January 2026. The upcoming quarterly earnings release and the execution of a major approved production expansion will be key tests for the Norwegian company.
Board Greenlights Major Electrolyzer Expansion
A significant development occurred on December 12, 2025, when Nel’s board of directors granted final investment approval for industrializing its “Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline” electrolyzer platform at the Herøya site. This technology, under development since 2018, has successfully completed full-scale prototype testing.
Key details of the expansion plan include:
- Support from the EU Innovation Fund of up to €135 million, structured around milestone achievements.
- An ultimate annual production capacity target of up to 4 GW.
- An initial phase investment of approximately 300 million Norwegian Kroner (NOK) to establish 1 GW of capacity.
- A commercial launch scheduled for the first half of 2026, with series deliveries planned to commence from 2027.
The board’s decision is expected to trigger an initial milestone payment exceeding €10 million from the EU funding.
Earnings Report to Scrutinize Order Recovery
All eyes will turn to the company’s financial calendar on February 26, 2026, when Nel is set to publish its Q4 2025 results and full-year annual report. Market expectations remain cautious following a challenging third quarter.
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The Q3 figures, released on October 29, 2025, revealed revenues of 303 million NOK, representing a 17% year-over-year decline. A more concerning figure was the 64% collapse in order intake, which fell to just 57 million NOK. Despite this, the company’s order backlog stood at 984 million NOK, and it maintained a strong liquidity position of about 1.8 billion NOK.
Recent Contract Wins Provide Momentum
In a positive sign, Nel secured several key contracts towards the end of 2025. On November 5, the company was awarded a PEM electrolyzer contract for the HyFuel and Kaupanes hydrogen projects. This was followed on November 10 by its selection as the technology provider for the GreenH hydrogen projects in Kristiansund and Slagentangen.
Sector Headwinds Persist
The broader industry context remains difficult. In December 2025, European regulators highlighted that persistently high production costs and sluggish infrastructure development continue to restrain growth across the hydrogen sector. Nel’s new platform is designed to address these very challenges by targeting lower system costs and enhanced energy efficiency.
The February Outlook
When the company reports in February, investors will primarily assess whether order intake has stabilized following the weak third-quarter performance. Furthermore, the market anticipates more concrete details on the timeline for implementing the Herøya expansion. With commercial production slated to begin in H1 2026 and series deliveries aimed for 2027, clarity on execution will be paramount.
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