As global supply chains face pressure from U.S. tariffs, Almonty Industries stands out as a notable exception. The Canadian mining company’s tungsten ores, concentrates, and oxides have been explicitly excluded from the latest round of U.S. counter-tariffs. This exemption underscores the strategic importance Washington places on this critical material.
The Critical Mineral Driving Demand
For years, the United States has classified tungsten as a critical mineral. Its applications in aerospace, defense systems, and the semiconductor industry make it difficult to substitute. China currently dominates the market, producing over 80% of the global supply and having imposed its own export restrictions. Compounding this reliance, the U.S. will ban tungsten imports from China for defense procurement starting in 2027.
Almonty is strategically positioned within this supply gap. The company holds a long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP), a leading U.S. processor based in Pennsylvania. The tariff exemption provides structural security for this crucial trade relationship.
Financial Backing and Expansion Plans
Almonty enters its next growth phase from a position of financial strength. Following a recent capital raise, the company’s cash position exceeds 268 million CAD. This war chest supports significant expansion, including a planned Phase 2 upgrade at its Sangdong mine in South Korea. Targeted for operation in 2027, this expansion would double ore processing capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year, subsequently boosting annual tungsten production to approximately 4,600 tonnes.
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Building a North American Production Base
Beyond its flagship Sangdong operation—where Phase 1 is currently processing about 640,000 tonnes of ore annually for roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate—Almonty is developing its first U.S. production site. The Gentung Browns Lake project in Beaverhead County, Montana, hosts total mineral resources of 7.53 million tonnes with a tungsten trioxide grade of 0.315%. The company is targeting production readiness for the second half of 2026, with an expected annual capacity of around 140,000 metric ton units.
The company is benefiting from substantial commodity price momentum. The spot price for tungsten APT surged 534% in the twelve-month average to mid-March 2026, reaching 2,250 USD per metric ton unit.
Growing Institutional and Analyst Confidence
This shifting market dynamic is reflected in growing analyst and institutional interest. Recent analyst assessments include:
* B. Riley Financial: Price target of 23.00 USD with a “Buy” recommendation.
* Oppenheimer: Sets a price target of 19.00 USD.
* DA Davidson: Issues a 25.00 USD price target.
* Diamond Equity Research: Raised its 2026 EPS estimate from 0.23 USD to 0.45 USD.
On the institutional side, the number of funds holding Almonty shares increased by more than 55% last quarter, reaching 107. Van ECK Associates increased its stake to 11.2 million shares (market value: approximately 99 million USD). Notable new entrants include Encompass Capital Advisors with a position valued at 25.6 million USD and Next Century Growth Investors with a 16.3 million USD stake.
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