ASML’s €40 Billion Revenue Target Faces a Test as Dividends Flow and Geopolitical Risks Loom

ASML shareholders are cashing in on a record payout, but the Dutch chip-equipment giant’s rosy outlook is colliding with a fresh wave of regulatory uncertainty from Washington. The stock, which has surged roughly 25% since the start of the year, closed at €1,235.60 on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange before trading ex-dividend on April 24.

The annual general meeting on April 22 approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share, bringing the total distribution for the fiscal year to €7.50 — a 17% increase from the prior year. That payout is backed by a balance sheet that keeps getting stronger. First-quarter revenue hit €8.8 billion, with net income of €2.8 billion, both comfortably ahead of analyst forecasts. The gross margin came in at 53.0%, at the upper end of the company’s own guidance.

Management responded by lifting its full-year revenue forecast to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion, up from earlier projections. The bullishness extends to the capital return program: ASML accelerated its share buybacks, spending €1.1 billion in the latest quarter alone, and has a €12 billion repurchase scheme running through 2028.

Goldman Sachs sees further upside. On April 23, the bank reiterated its “Buy” rating and raised its price target to €1,570 from €1,450, citing the strong first-quarter results and the upgraded annual guidance. For the 2026-2030 period, Goldman lifted its revenue and gross profit estimates by 6% to 10%, arguing that ASML remains a prime beneficiary of relentless demand for high-performance chips used in AI infrastructure.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

Yet the stock still trades roughly 5% below its 52-week high of €1,295, held back by a combination of near-term headwinds. Reports that a major customer is delaying mass production using High-NA EUV lithography systems until 2029 have weighed on sentiment. Analysts at UBS and Citigroup, also commenting on April 23, dismissed the setback as a “timing headwind” rather than a structural blow. While some chip fabs are prioritizing cost efficiency with existing machines, Intel and Samsung are pushing ahead more aggressively with the next-generation technology, which should keep overall demand steady.

The leadership team remains largely intact after the shareholder vote. Marco Pieters was appointed as chief technology officer for a four-year term. CFO Roger Dassen and COO Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury had their mandates renewed — Dassen for four years, Schneider-Maunoury for two.

A darker cloud is gathering on the geopolitical front. US lawmakers are advancing the MATCH Act, legislation designed to cut off China’s access to advanced chipmaking tools. That strikes at the heart of ASML’s business. China was the company’s largest single market last year, accounting for a third of total revenue. Management had already factored in a decline due to existing sanctions, projecting the China share would fall to around 20% in 2026. If the MATCH Act passes Congress and is signed by the US president, that figure could shrink further.

The bill includes a 150-day grace period for allied nations like the Netherlands to tighten their own export controls before Washington acts unilaterally. Until then, ASML’s bulging order book provides a cushion. The next quarterly results will reveal whether incoming orders can sustain the elevated revenue target — and whether the stock can close the gap to Goldman’s €1,570 price objective.