Palantir’s Pentagon Seal of Approval and a $300 Million USDA Win Set the Stage for Earnings

The data-analytics firm has been busy locking down government contracts even as its stock charts tell a less flattering story. With the Pentagon elevating Project Maven to a permanent “Program of Record,” Palantir is no longer operating on experimental, short-term military deals. That shift into the regular defense infrastructure provides a rare piece of long-term visibility for a company whose share price has been sliding since January.

The timing could hardly be more critical. Palantir reports first-quarter results after the US market close on May 4, 2026, and the bar is set exceptionally high. Management has guided for full-year revenue of up to $7.2 billion, which would represent a 61% annual jump. The commercial US segment is expected to be the main engine, with the board forecasting a 115% revenue surge in that division alone.

A String of Federal Wins

The Pentagon upgrade was not the only government milestone this week. Palantir secured a $300 million blanket purchase agreement with the US Department of Agriculture to power the “One Farmer, One File” initiative, which consolidates fragmented legacy databases into a single platform. That deal follows a $1 billion framework agreement with the Department of Homeland Security signed in February 2026.

Perhaps most tantalizing is Palantir’s position as one of three finalists for a Federal Aviation Administration contract involving AI-driven air traffic control systems. The potential value of that award could reach $32.5 billion, a figure that would dwarf any single contract in the company’s history.

Valuation Angst vs. Backlog Growth

Despite the contract momentum, the stock has struggled. Shares closed Friday at €119.94, down about 1% on the day and roughly 16% lower year-to-date. The stock now trades well below its 200-day moving average of €141.41, though it still shows a 27% gain over the past twelve months.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?

The valuation debate remains intense. The forward price-to-earnings ratio sits above 120, a level that has prompted caution from some market observers. DZ Bank, however, issued a new buy recommendation with a price target of $175, pointing to the massive contract backlog. The total value of newly signed agreements recently reached $4.26 billion.

Analysts expect first-quarter revenue of around $1.68 billion, a significant increase from the year-ago period. The average analyst price target stands at roughly $202.50, implying substantial upside if the company can deliver on its aggressive guidance.

CEO Pay and a Steady Swiss Hand

A SEC filing on April 24 revealed that CEO Alexander Karp received total compensation of approximately $8.62 million for fiscal 2025, a nearly 50% increase from 2024. On the institutional side, the Swiss National Bank has maintained its roughly $1.1 billion stake in Palantir despite activist pressure, reducing the risk of a forced large-scale selloff.

The May 4 earnings report will test whether Palantir’s AI platform can sustain its breakneck growth pace in the current macroeconomic environment. A guidance raise would go a long way toward justifying the premium valuation, while any miss could deepen the stock’s year-to-date slide.