SanDisk’s Rally Faces a Tug-of-War: Hedge Fund Bet vs. Insider Sales as Supply Squeeze Intensifies

Fresh twists are piling up for SanDisk investors. A planned 18-day strike at Samsung Electronics, set to begin May 21, threatens to knock out roughly three percent of global memory-chip production — a development that would tighten NAND supply further and bolster pricing. Already, contract prices surged up to 90 percent in the first quarter, and analysts expect another 70 percent jump in the current period. SanDisk itself rode that wave to a 252 percent revenue leap, with its gross margin landing at 78.9 percent, though a separate report pegged the figure at 78.4 percent.

Compounding the picture, a mini-tender offer from Tutanaca LLC is turning heads for all the wrong reasons. The firm bid $1,150 per share for up to 100,000 shares — well below SanDisk’s market price of around $1,407. SanDisk management has advised shareholders to reject the bid, noting that mini-tenders target less than five percent of outstanding shares and sidestep SEC transparency rules. The offer expires Wednesday, and shareholders who already tendered can revoke their decisions. The lowball bid looks more like a distraction than a threat.

Meanwhile, two very different signals are flashing from the investor base. David Tepper’s Appaloosa Management built a new stake in SanDisk during the first quarter, valued at roughly $179 million by the end of March — its only fresh buy in the period. But insiders are moving in the opposite direction. Chief Accounting Officer Michael Pokorny sold shares worth about $3.5 million on May 8, and Director Necip Sayiner offloaded 579 shares at an average of $1,503, netting nearly $870,000. Combined, the sales totaled over $4.4 million, occurring near the all-time high of $1,562 set earlier this month. Pokorny still holds 22,375 shares, Sayiner 2,900.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SANDISK?

Operationally, SanDisk’s numbers remain impressive. The company guided for current-quarter gross margins of 79 to 81 percent on revenue of $7.7 billion to $8.2 billion. Analysts have dramatically raised their earnings estimate for fiscal 2027 from around $10 per share in September 2025 to $169 now. Yet the growth came entirely from pricing and product mix — bit shipments declined sequentially. The stock now trades at roughly 16 times annual sales, up from about 4.5 times at the start of the year, leaving it vulnerable to any disappointment.

Wall Street is largely bullish. Bernstein recently lifted its price target to $1,700. Mizuho points to structural AI-driven demand from data centers as a tailwind for NAND prices, and Counterpoint Research expects tight supply to persist beyond 2027. With shares hovering near $1,400, speculation about a stock split is growing louder. KLA Corp recently announced a 10-for-1 split; a similar move at SanDisk would push the price to around $140, making the stock more accessible to retail investors.

The coming days will test which narrative dominates. Tepper’s big bet offers institutional validation, while insider selling near a record high raises caution. The Samsung strike could tighten supply further and support margins, but if it fizzles — or if Tuesday’s mini-tender deadline stirs unwelcome attention — the stock’s elevated valuation may come under pressure. For now, investors have plenty to weigh.