T1 Energy’s Solar Bet Pays Off with Record Revenue, Yet Stock Swings Remain Extreme

T1 Energy has delivered its strongest quarterly performance since pivoting to solar manufacturing, posting a net profit of $3.9 million and revenue of $177.6 million for the first quarter of 2026 – well above the $132.6 million analysts had penciled in. The numbers mark a clear payoff from the company’s decision to build a domestic solar supply chain after shedding its FREYR Battery identity.

The market, however, remains anything but calm. Shares surged nearly 15% on Monday to €5.65, comfortably above the 50-day moving average, after closing the previous Friday at €4.92. The jump comes despite a backdrop of extreme volatility: the stock has swung 96.33% over the past 30 days, reflecting deep uncertainty about the speed and cost of the company’s next growth phase.

Analysts see room for further gains, with the average price target sitting at $9.10 – implying roughly 60% upside from current levels. BTIG raised its own target to $8 in mid-May, though the firm acknowledges the gap between operational momentum and market sentiment. Last quarter’s loss per share of $0.70 missed expectations by $0.56, a reminder that profitability remains uneven.

The engine behind the record quarter is the G1 facility in Wilmer, Texas, where T1 Energy is running modules at full capacity. Throughput reached 683 megawatts, generating a gross margin of 17%. For the full year, management aims to produce between 3.1 and 4.2 GW, with 3 GW already under contract for 2026 – a level that provides a solid baseline for planning.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying T1 Energy?

Attention is now fixed on G2_Austin, the cell factory that will determine whether T1 Energy can sustain its growth trajectory. The first 2.1 GW phase is slated to begin production in the fourth quarter of 2026, with total project costs estimated at $425 million. Net proceeds of $176 million from a convertible note issued in April have already been funneled into the plant, and the company expects to fund the remaining $225 million through additional debt.

That convertible note, originally valued at $160 million, also carries dilution risk for existing shareholders, adding to the pressure on the stock. The management’s long-range target calls for adjusted EBITDA of between $375 million and $450 million by 2027, a goal that hinges on G2_Austin ramping up smoothly.

Near-term headwinds are plentiful. US trade policy, solar module price trends, and the availability of tax incentives all introduce uncertainty. Even Texas weather can disrupt operations at a factory still under construction. For now, the market is watching one date above all: whether the first cells roll off the line in the fourth quarter as promised.