SpaceX’s $20 Billion Bond Plan and $401 Analyst Target Collide as First Week Rally Fades

The initial frenzy around SpaceX’s public listing has cooled sharply. After two straight days of losses, the stock slid more than 6% on Friday to approximately $178, retreating from the all-time high of $225.64 set just days earlier. The pullback wiped out roughly 8.3% of value in the run-up to the June 19 holiday, which market observers attribute to a natural exhaustion following a blistering debut from the $135 IPO price.

Retail investors, who received about 20% of the offering, have been net sellers this week. According to Vanda Research, net purchases slumped to just over $9 million — a dramatic deceleration from the buying frenzy that drove the company’s market capitalization as high as $3 trillion at one point. The stock now trades at a $2.4 trillion valuation, making SpaceX the world’s sixth most valuable company.

While equity traders take profits, the bond market is sending a very different signal. Fitch Ratings awarded SpaceX an investment-grade rating of BBB+, citing the company’s stranglehold on commercial spaceflight. S&P followed with its own upgrade, highlighting the 12 million subscribers currently using Starlink. The double thumbs-up comes as SpaceX prepares a $20 billion bond offering, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs leading the placement. Proceeds will replace a bridge loan used to finance the acquisition of AI startup xAI.

The bullish bond reception aligns with an aggressive analyst call that arrived on June 18. Arete Research initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $401 per share — more than double the $185 closing price at the time. Oppenheimer also chimed in, raising its target to $250 after factoring in the billion-dollar purchase of Anysphere, a software firm expected to accelerate internal development.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

Underpinning these optimistic projections is a business that commands over 80% of global satellite mass launched into orbit since 2023. That dominance extends from launch services to Starlink, the broadband constellation that Morgan Stanley sees as the primary revenue driver for the rest of the decade. The Starship rocket program adds a second growth lever, promising to slash per-kilogram costs and open new frontiers such as orbital data centers and AI computing in space.

Yet SpaceX’s expansion comes at a staggering price. In the first quarter of 2026, the company generated $4.69 billion in revenue but posted a net loss of $4.28 billion — far wider than the roughly $500 million deficit in the same period last year. Since early 2023, SpaceX has accumulated an estimated $13 billion in losses, almost entirely from research and development spending on Starship and artificial intelligence. Analysts characterize the spending as foundational for future recurring income, even as it weighs on near-term earnings.

The next market catalyst is less than a month away. After 15 trading days, SpaceX shares will become eligible for inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, a milestone that typically triggers inflows from passive funds that track the index. Combined with the bond sale and the eventual unwinding of insider lock-ups, the coming weeks will test whether the company can sustain its $2.4 trillion valuation — or whether the profit-taking has further to run.