XRP Trapped at $1.15 as Ripple’s EU License and Exchange Exodus Battle Technical Gravity

Ripple has just cleared one of its most significant regulatory hurdles in Europe, yet the XRP token remains pinned below a stubborn resistance zone. The paradox is sharp: corporate progress is accelerating while the market price refuses to follow.

On 6 July 2026, Ripple obtained a full CASP (Crypto Asset Service Provider) licence from Luxembourg’s CSSF, the country’s financial regulator. The approval, granted under the EU’s MiCA framework, arrived days after the 1 July transition deadline and complements Ripple’s existing e-money licence. The combined status allows the company to offer regulated crypto services across all 30 countries of the European Economic Area via passporting, eliminating the need for separate applications in each jurisdiction. Ripple now holds more than 75 regulatory licences globally, and its payment infrastructure has processed over $100 billion in volume across 60 markets. Investors should note, however, that the MiCA licence covers institutional payment and custody services, not the XRP token itself; future demand for the token in Europe depends on how much payment traffic actually routes through the XRP Ledger.

While Ripple cements its institutional footprint, the supply dynamics of XRP are shifting beneath the surface. The XRP scarcity index on Binance climbed to 0.77 on 6 July, its highest level since mid-2024. The metric measures how much XRP is immediately available for sale on the world’s largest exchange — a high reading signals that fewer tokens are sitting on the order book, potentially reducing selling pressure. This trend is mirrored by a dramatic withdrawal of coins from trading platforms overall. Exchange outflows have tripled recently to roughly 123 million tokens, and active addresses on the XRP Ledger have surged 72% in just two weeks. On-chain valuation metrics add to the cautiously bullish picture: the 30-day MVRV ratio sits at minus 45% and the 365-day figure at minus 47%. Historically, such deeply negative readings mark an “opportunity zone” in which most holders are underwater — a constellation that has often preceded recovery phases.

Despite these supply-side tailwinds, XRP’s price remains trapped. The token is changing hands at $1.13, having failed to sustain a breakout above $1.15. On a daily basis it is down 2.36%, though the weekly chart still shows a gain of 6.86%. The secondary article notes that the $1.10 level, which had capped all upside since May, was finally breached — but that breakout has stalled at the next band of resistance between $1.14 and $1.15. The broader trend is still bearish: XRP has lost roughly 39% since the start of the year and trades 69% below its 52-week high of $3.65 set in July 2025. It marked a new yearly low of $1.01 only in late June. The 50-day moving average at $1.19 and the 200-day average at $1.47 both sit above the current price, confirming that the overarching downtrend remains intact. The relative strength index at 50 indicates neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?

Institutional capital continues to flow in, providing a floor beneath the market. US spot ETFs on XRP have now logged nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, with last week’s tally reaching $17.19 million. Cumulative inflows across these funds stand at roughly $1.47 billion. This steady accumulation has helped XRP hold above the $1.11 support level amid broader crypto volatility. Yet the bullish impact is capped by the technical ceiling above.

Two key technical zones will determine the next move. The primary support sits at $1.1110; a break below that could trigger a retest of the psychologically important $1.00 mark. On the upside, clearing the $1.14–$1.15 resistance band would open the path toward $1.18–$1.20, with the secondary target at $1.25 if buying pressure persists. Conversely, a drop beneath $1.00 would likely accelerate losses to $0.93.

Beyond the charts, Ripple is also strengthening its market position through strategic initiatives. Portfolio company Evernorth has filed a new trademark on the Cayman Islands as part of an XRP treasury project, and Ripple has joined a Wall Street-backed stablecoin consortium. These moves, combined with the EU licence and the tightening spot supply, create a foundation for a potential reversal — if the price can finally break free of the $1.15 cap.