Volkswagen’s Pre-Close Call Looms as China Sales Collapse and Board Impasse Deepen

Volkswagen enters one of its most treacherous trading periods in recent memory, with the stock clinging to its 52-week low and a crucial investor briefing set for Monday. The company will hold its H1 pre-close call on July 13, but the agenda is dominated by two unresolved headaches: a catastrophic slide in Chinese deliveries and a boardroom standoff that has stalled the cost-cutting program needed to restore margins.

The numbers laid bare the scale of the crisis late last week. Worldwide deliveries in the second quarter fell 8.6% year-on-year to 2.08 million vehicles, accelerating from a 4% drop in the first three months of the year. The core VW brand suffered a 14% plunge to 1.02 million units, while Porsche tumbled 18% to 61,300 vehicles — following a 16% first-half decline. Audi fared slightly better with an 8.2% reduction to 367,000, and Skoda bucked the trend with a near-5% gain to roughly 284,000 cars. For the first half as a whole, deliveries reached about 4.126 million, a 6.3% shortfall.

China remains the epicentre of the pain. Second-quarter deliveries there collapsed by 36.6% to just 424,300 vehicles, as local competitors like BYD aggressively eat into Volkswagen’s market share and the overall market contracts. Audi sales chief Marco Schubert, who also oversees group-wide distribution, described the environment as “challenging”, though he noted that newly launched locally developed EVs have generated some initial positive momentum. Elsewhere, the picture was brighter: North American deliveries rose by almost 8% to 242,000 despite the Trump-era tariffs, and Western Europe edged up roughly 2% to more than 900,000 cars.

The divergence in electric-vehicle demand is equally stark. Volkswagen’s EV registrations in the US crashed 69% after government incentives expired and tariff barriers rose, but the company defended its leadership in Europe with an 8% increase. Forward orders for battery-electric vehicles across the continent have more than doubled since the end of 2025, offering a rare ray of hope.

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That operational weakness comes at a moment when internal governance is hampering the response. The supervisory board at its meeting last Thursday postponed key votes on plant closures and headcount reductions, leaving chief executive Oliver Blume’s “Zielbild 2030” strategic blueprint in limbo. Blume has said factory costs at German sites have already been cut by an average of 20%, but insists deeper savings are essential to keep the industrial base competitive. He is now searching for “intelligent alternatives” to forced shutdowns, but rating agencies are watching closely, warning that the long-term profitability targets are at risk without decisive action.

The pre-close call on Monday — scheduled from 9:00 to 10:00 a.m. — is expected to focus on margins and cash flow. Analysts will press for specifics on how Volkswagen plans to regain ground against Chinese EV rivals, a question that has so far gone unanswered. The full half-year financial report follows on July 24.

The market’s anxiety is already baked into the share price. The preferred stock ended Friday at €71.06, down 1.31% on the day and off 5.25% for the week. Over the past month it has shed 17.85%, and the year-to-date loss stands at 33.03%. At that level, the shares are within 2.69% of their 52-week trough of €69.20, touched on July 1, and a staggering 35% below the December 2025 high of €109.10. The 200-day moving average of €93.78 is more than 24% above the current quote, while the relative strength index of 30.2 signals an oversold condition. The 30-day annualised volatility of 32.21% underscores just how frayed investor nerves are.

Technicians warn that a decisive break below €69.20 could open the door to a slide toward €60. Adding to the uncertainty, the stand-off over EU tariffs with China could further disrupt Volkswagen’s largest single market. Whether Monday’s call delivers a credible strategy for both China and the cost base will determine if the stock can stabilise — or fall into new multi-year lows.