Starship Flight 13 Carries Starlink V3 Prototypes as SpaceX Stock Struggles Near Lows

SpaceX finds itself at a crossroads. The company’s next Starship test flight, scheduled for Thursday July 16, will attempt to deploy 20 prototype Starlink V3 satellites from orbit for the first time. Yet the same week that brings this technical milestone finds the stock trading just a whisper above its 52-week low, less than 10% above the June IPO price of $135.

The stock closed Monday at €122.00 ($139.14), within €1.80 of the 52-week trough of €120.20 set on July 13. It has since inched up 0.2% to €122.24 in Tuesday trading, but the broader picture remains stark: from the record high of €194.46 ($225.64) on June 16, the shares have fallen roughly 37%, wiping out about $800 billion of market capitalization from the peak of $2.67 trillion. Over the past month the stock is down 26.5%, and the annualized 30-day volatility has surged to nearly 100%, reflecting the unusually sharp swings rattling investors.

A packed flight manifest with new objectives

The Federal Aviation Administration cleared the way for Flight 13 on Monday after completing its investigation of the booster failure on Flight 12. The regulator attributed the loss of the Super Heavy to heat damage on propulsion components and erroneous engine alarms; SpaceX has since implemented four corrective measures, including a revised ignition sequence and hardware upgrades.

This time, Booster 20 and Ship 40 will attempt a more ambitious profile. The Super Heavy will execute a controlled boostback burn and splash down softly in the Gulf of Mexico. The upper stage, meanwhile, is tasked with the first in-space relight of a single Raptor engine during the flight — a key capability for future orbital missions — followed by a targeted water landing in the Indian Ocean.

The headline payload is 20 functional Starlink V3 prototypes, each equipped with laser inter-satellite links and deployable solar panels. They will be released from a “Pez” dispenser on a suborbital trajectory, briefly communicate with the existing Starlink constellation, and then re-enter the atmosphere and burn up after roughly 20 minutes. Six of the satellites carry camera systems to film the Starship’s heat shield tiles in flight, providing engineers with real-time data on tile condition — critical for SpaceX’s push toward rapid reusability.

Several tiles on Ship 40 have been painted white to serve as optical reference points for the cameras, while other sections test new tile attachment methods and metallic flap designs. These experiments build on lessons from Flight 12, where the upper stage suffered an engine failure during ascent and the booster lost orientation during the boostback maneuver.

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Multiple pressures weigh on the stock

Flight 13 comes at a time when the stock is already under external pressure. On July 13, China’s CASC successfully launched and recovered its reusable Long March 10B rocket at sea, and Japan reported a successful test of its own reusable vehicle — both news items that added to the negative sentiment around SpaceX shares that day.

Structural concerns are also looming. The first public quarterly earnings report is expected in early August, and lock-up agreements from the June IPO are set to expire shortly after, potentially flooding the market with shares from insiders. Meanwhile, Subversive Markets Lab has filed with the SEC for two new ETFs — QQNE and SPNE — that would explicitly exclude Elon Musk-linked companies such as SpaceX and Tesla, with a launch targeted around September 21.

Analyst forecasts stretch from $30 to $800

Wall Street remains deeply split on the stock’s fair value. At the bullish end, Raymond James’s Brian Gesuale sets a target of $800, while Morgan Stanley sees $300. UBS, citing a potential total addressable market for Starship of up to $30 trillion and projected annual revenue and EBITDA growth of roughly 70% and 90% respectively through 2031, gives a $210 target.

On the bearish side, CFRA’s Keith Snyder expects a decline to $115 — near the current dollar level — Morningstar pegs fair value at just $63, and hedge fund manager George Noble argues the stock is worth only $30.

The fundamental picture does little to narrow that gap. For 2025, SpaceX posted revenue of about $18.6 billion but a net loss of $4.9 billion. Starlink, with roughly 10.3 million subscribers, generated $11.4 billion in revenue and an operating profit of $4.4 billion, making it the lone profit center. Since its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, SpaceX has become the index’s 21st-largest constituent with a weight of about 1.2% in the QQQ fund.

All eyes are now on Thursday’s launch window from Starbase, Texas, which opens at 6:45 a.m. Eastern time. A successful Raptor relight and satellite deployment would mark a meaningful step beyond Flight 12, but with the stock hovering near its IPO price, the market is demanding proof that the technical progress can translate into sustainable financial performance.