Tech Loses $1 Trillion, but the Rest of the Market Holds

Dear readers,

Amazon and Intel have answered the question we left hanging yesterday, and neither answer is kind. Intel plunges about 29 percent on Friday after warning of cash burn. Amazon gives up several percent on record investment spending.

The technology sector sheds more than $1 trillion in market value, and the Nasdaq 100 drops almost 3 percent in trading, its biggest one-day loss since mid-June. Yet the rest of the market is holding up remarkably well. Capital isn’t leaving the market. It is moving into names that deliver profits and cash today.

Breadth Holds, Only the Top Cracks

October shows how unevenly the burden is spread. About 77 percent of S&P 500 stocks gained this month. The equal-weighted index rose roughly 5.7 percent, while the cap-weighted index managed only about 0.9 percent.

Energy led with around 11.8 percent, followed by consumer staples at just under 10 percent and utilities at a good 9 percent. Communication services lost a good 14 percent.

Alphabet trades at about $280 on Friday, roughly 17 percent below its level 30 days ago. It is one of three hyperscalers in a bear market. The Nasdaq 100 is on course for its first monthly loss since July. Anyone who builds a portfolio around the heavyweights feels this far more than someone with broad diversification.

Eli Lilly and Mastercard: Growth Nobody Punishes

Eli Lilly shows what the market currently rewards: growth that arrives as profit. Third-quarter revenue came in at $24.4 billion against a consensus of $22.61 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share were $7.48, versus expectations of $6.26. Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion, from $85 billion to $87 billion. The stock closed at a record $1,373.70 on Thursday and adds to that on Friday, trading around $1,423.

Mastercard also delivers what investors want. The payments giant reported net revenue of $9.8 billion and adjusted earnings of $5.31 per share, against expectations of $5.17. The stock hit a record high on Thursday and stays near that mark on Friday despite the tech selloff.

The two share one trait: their numbers don’t depend on hopes for future data-center returns. Investors looking to lock in tech gains will find quality here, but they must accept high valuations.

Oil: The Refiners’ War Dividend

Exxon Mobil and Chevron profit from an environment that consumers pay dearly for. Exxon earned an adjusted $4.23 per share, against expectations of about $4.13. Its refining division earned $9.05 billion, a record and roughly five times the prior-year figure. Exxon also raises its dividend by 3.9 percent to $1.07 and keeps buybacks at $20 billion.

Chevron beat with adjusted earnings of $5.28 per share, against an expected $4.93. Its stock trades at about $236 on Friday, above its previous high for the year. BP, up a good 50 percent so far this year, benefits as well.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Exxon Mobil?

The backdrop is the Iran war, which has knocked out about 10 percent of global refining capacity. Brent trades above $110, and tanker attacks are being reported in the Strait of Hormuz. The profits are real but tied to the geopolitical situation, and a ceasefire would squeeze margins quickly. Dividends and buybacks support the shares regardless.

Binance Hack: When Stablecoin Issuers Become the Police

The largest crypto theft in history weighs on the industry just before the turn of the month. About $6.3 billion was drained from Binance wallets, most of it within 20 minutes. The North Korean group TraderTraitor is considered the likely culprit.

Part of the loot is already frozen: Tether blocked about $1.6 billion and Circle more than $800 million. Binance has promised to cover all losses, has set aside $6.34 billion and is pausing withdrawals for about 45 hours.

Bitcoin falls to about $76,600, down roughly 8 percent over 30 days and a good 29 percent over twelve months. Crypto equities take the hardest hit. Coinbase loses about 12 to 13 percent in early trading. Strategy, which is also dealing with its CFO’s resignation, drops 8 to 10 percent.

The lesson for investors is that the exchange itself isn’t the loser as long as its reserves hold. But trust in centralized custodians is eroding, and stablecoin issuers are turning into the de facto supervisors of the industry.

OneSpan: Software That Writes Profits

Away from the AI debate, a smaller software name shows what investors are looking for. OneSpan, a provider of security and identity software, raised quarterly revenue by 12 percent to $63.9 million, well above the expected $57.43 million.

Adjusted earnings came in at $0.35 per share, against $0.24 expected. The 2026 forecast now stands at $254 million to $258 million in revenue. The stock set a new 52-week high.

Rosenblatt lifted its price target from $18 to $22 and kept its “Neutral” rating. B. Riley raised its target from $22 to $32 and confirmed “Buy.” That spread shows how unclear the valuation is after the jump. This is a small niche stock with correspondingly large swings, not a core holding.

The Takeaway

Next week is the real test. On Tuesday, the US midterm elections take place, and the jobs report follows on Friday. Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Palantir, McDonald’s, Amgen and ConocoPhillips are also scheduled to report. Markets price roughly an 80 percent chance of a rate hike in December.

The rotation stays intact as long as profits carry prices. If another earnings pillar gives way, the reshuffling can quickly turn into a broader retreat.

Have a great weekend.

Best regards,
The StocksToday.com Editorial