Dear readers,
After four losing weeks for the Nasdaq, Monday opens with Dow futures clearly higher, helped by easing oil prices and Donald Trump’s assessment that new attacks on Iran are unlikely.
The question we left open on Saturday was whether money would stay in defensive names or drift back to chips. Today’s calendar says the answer will come from company balance sheets rather than index levels. The stocks that matter are the ones reporting cash or concrete numbers.
Take-Two: A Weak Quarter, but the Outlook Is the Event
Take-Two reports after the US close today, with the conference call set for 22:30 CET. Management itself guides to second-quarter net bookings of $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion, against $1.96 billion in the same quarter last year.
Net bookings are the game sales recorded over the quarter, so that would be a drop of roughly 16 percent. For reported (GAAP) results, the market expects a loss of about $0.86 per share.
The quarter is a formality. The outlook is what counts. For the full year, Take-Two has reaffirmed net bookings of $8 billion to $8.2 billion. After roughly $3 billion in the first half, about $5 billion has to arrive in the second. The launch of GTA VI on November 19 is meant to close that gap. Options markets are pricing a post-earnings move of more than 10 percent in either direction.
The stock closed Friday at $214.87, against a 52-week high of $265.94. Wedbush recently cut its price target from $300 to $280, and Bank of America trimmed its target from $368 to $330. Of the 24 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 21 rate the stock a Buy, 2 a Hold and 1 a Sell.
The shares, in other words, are priced ahead of a launch that has not yet happened. What management says tonight about whether the $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion guidance has room to spare will matter more than the quarterly figures.
Berkshire Hathaway: Abel Hands Back the Money
Under Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway has sharply stepped up its share buybacks. In the third quarter, $9.6 billion went into its own stock, and about $2 billion more followed in October. In the first half, buybacks totaled only $4.8 billion. Cash fell to $356.9 billion at the end of September, from $380.2 billion at the end of March.
The operating side was less cheerful. Operating earnings fell 6 percent to $12.71 billion, and the main culprit was auto insurer Geico. Its pre-tax underwriting earnings dropped to $982 million from $1.77 billion.
Its combined ratio worsened to 91.4 percent from 84.3 percent, and its loss ratio alone rose to 76.6 percent from 71.5 percent a year earlier. Rail unit BNSF, by contrast, lifted its profit by 19 percent and Precision Castparts by 30 percent.
Berkshire’s message is that it currently finds its own shares a more attractive use of capital than the market does. The quarter also shows earnings power eroding in individual segments. Anyone who holds Berkshire as a quality anchor should keep an eye on Geico.
Constellation, Barrick, Occidental: Who Delivers Cash
Monday brings several real-economy reports. Constellation Energy’s adjusted EPS of $5.06 beat the analyst estimate of $3.85. The company raised and narrowed its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance to $12.50 to $12.80 per share, and its nuclear fleet’s capacity factor rose to 97.2 percent.
Adjusted operating income of $1.79 billion, however, fell short of the $2.16 billion estimate. The stock is still down about 29 percent year to date, which shows how much skepticism toward the power theme is priced in.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Cisco?
Barrick Mining narrowly missed on adjusted earnings, at $0.82 versus the expected $0.85. It confirmed its 2026 production guidance and cut its capital expenditure guidance to $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion.
For the third quarter it returned $1.04 billion to shareholders, including $761 million in share buybacks. Gold currently trades near $4,100 per ounce.
Occidental Petroleum also reports today. Its realized oil price in the third quarter was $85.91 per barrel, a good 11 percent below the second quarter. Debt stood at $11.8 billion at the end of June, against a target of $10 billion, and falling oil prices push that goal further out. Anyone betting on debt reduction as a stock driver should watch how Occidental justifies it as prices fall.
Cisco: The Test Comes Thursday
Cisco reports Thursday, November 12, after the US market close. It is a litmus test for the AI networking buildout beyond the chipmakers. The company’s previous revenue forecast ranged from $18 billion to $18.2 billion, and adjusted earnings are projected at $1.32 per share.
Wall Street expects revenue of about $18.118 billion, up 21.5 percent from a year earlier. In the previous quarter Cisco reported $4 billion in AI infrastructure orders, and it has set a $7.5 billion target for fiscal 2027.
The stock has fallen sharply in recent weeks and trades near $94, well below its 52-week high of about $130. Options pricing points to an expected post-earnings move of roughly 7.9 percent to 8.5 percent in either direction. Consensus is high, but after the decline expectations are less demanding than in the summer. AI order intake will decide whether Cisco is again seen as a supplier to the buildout or as a laggard.
Nvidia: Political Risk, Not Revenue Risk
Nvidia fell about 5 to 6 percent in premarket trading on Monday, to near $175 to $176, well below Friday’s close of $186.64. The board has launched an independent investigation following reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a “foreign intelligence effort.”
Huang admitted having an affair with a business executive the US concluded was a Chinese spy. She is tied to Nvidia customer Megaspeed. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised, and a spokesperson said Huang is committed to remaining CEO.
The operating business looks unaffected for now. The risk is political, and the affair hands critics of the AI buildout fresh arguments. The chipmaker reports third-quarter results on November 17, a day before the requested congressional briefing. Until then, the stock is likely to stay vulnerable to headlines.
The Takeaway
The week’s data calendar is dense. On Tuesday, US consumer prices for October are due, with consensus pointing to an annual rate of 3.9 percent, up from 3.7 percent in September.
One caveat: the BLS will not release a year-over-year CPI figure this month because of missing October 2025 data, so the monthly readings will take center stage. CoreWeave also reports Tuesday, and Cisco and Applied Materials follow on Thursday. Tonight, Take-Two shows whether the GTA launch supports its guidance.
The lesson for investors this week is simple. Companies that deliver cash and concrete numbers stand on firmer ground than those offering only a story.
Best regards,
The StocksToday.com Editorial
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