A Hot CPI Reading Stalls the Rebound and Puts a December Hike in Play

Dear readers,

Monday’s rally lasted about one session. The S&P 500 closed up 2.35% on Monday, its best day since April 8, and then ran straight into the October inflation report.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, against the 0.3% the Dow Jones survey had expected. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3%, against forecasts for 0.2%.

Stocks opened lower on Tuesday. The S&P 500 traded down 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.9%. Yesterday’s question was which companies can show cash and concrete numbers. Today adds a second one: what those numbers are worth when the Fed may be about to raise rates. Crypto, consumer stocks and software each give a different answer.

Bitcoin: The Midterm Bounce Fades

Bitcoin traded around $73,800 in the afternoon, below Monday’s level. After the midterms it had climbed to a Nov. 4 high near $81,000. Leveraged long positions were liquidated after the inflation data, and Bitcoin is down roughly 30% over twelve months.

The trigger is the Fed. Governor Christopher Waller said he leans toward a 25-basis-point hike in December. He added that a 50-basis-point move “should be considered” if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. It did. Traders now all but price in at least a quarter-point increase in December.

That hurts Bitcoin in two ways. Non-yielding assets become more expensive to hold, and ETF buyers are retreating. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $201 million on Monday, which brings outflows since Nov. 2 to around $1.5 billion.

Strategy is the main buyer on the other side. It bought 1,036 Bitcoin last week and now holds 850,364 BTC. Washington adds pressure. The Democrats swept Congress in the midterms, and they are planning a crypto bill that would give the SEC more powers and the CFTC fewer. The fate of the strategic Bitcoin reserve remains open.

The picture is mixed. The popular claim that Bitcoin gained strongly on average in the twelve months after midterm elections rests on only a few cycles, which makes it thin evidence. On the charts, the zone around $73,000 matters. Glassnode sees a $73,000–$76,000 retest band and says a sustained break below $73,000 would point to longer consolidation. If that level fails, $70,000 moves closer. Relief would only be confirmed above $76,000.

XRP has fallen six days in a row and trades below $1.10. Retail activity looks weak, which points to choppy rather than rising prices in the short term.

Consumer: Relief at the Pump, Selectivity at the Register

Retail enters the holiday season split. The relief is at the pump. Brent fell below $90 for the first time since August, and US gasoline dropped under $4. The slide followed President Trump’s comment that renewed strikes on Iran were highly unlikely as long as negotiations progress. That eases pressure on household budgets, even though food prices rose 0.5% in October.

The market is now sorting solid retailers from weak ones. Bob’s Discount Furniture delivered strong third-quarter numbers: net income rose 28.8% to $41.7 million on a 10.3% rise in net revenue. Tariff refunds supported the profit figure.

At the other end, The Children’s Place announced on November 8 that it had filed for Chapter 11 protection. It is selling substantially all of its assets, aiming to keep the business running as a going concern, with bids due December 9. The shares traded around 18 cents on Monday.

Groupon fell about 20% in premarket trading on Tuesday after weak Q3 results and a lowered 2026 revenue outlook. Free cash flow was negative $45.8 million in the quarter.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bitcoin?

The pattern is consistent: growth with profit is rewarded, and balance-sheet weakness is punished. With rates likely heading up, consumer investors should look at margins and leverage, not just foot traffic.

Software: Palantir Stays Expensive, Trade Desk Surprises

In software, valuation decides. Palantir closed at $169.20 on Monday, up 5.50%, but the stock is still down 19.1% since October 9, when it set its highest close of the past year. The third-quarter numbers were strong. Revenue climbed 95.9% year over year to $2.31 billion, and the US commercial business more than doubled, reportedly surpassing government revenue for the first time.

Morningstar’s fair value estimate is $156 per share, and the stock trades above it. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is well above 100. That leaves little cushion if rates rise.

The Trade Desk, an online advertising platform, fared better. It reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.33 a share, against expectations of $0.25. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of at least $755 million is well above the $691.6 million consensus. The stock surged in after-hours trading.

Qualys, a security software provider, moved the other way. Its shares fell nearly 7% premarket even though adjusted EPS of $2.12 topped expectations. The company guided to about 8% calculated billings growth in Q4, slower than in Q3.

Even good numbers no longer guarantee a rising share price. What counts is whether the outlook supports the valuation.

Anthropic: The IPO as a Test for the Sector

The biggest topic for tech investors is the Anthropic IPO, and the roadshow is under way. The base offering would raise up to $64.4 billion, with shares marketed at $70 to $78 each. Including a private placement, Anthropic and some shareholders are seeking as much as $90.4 billion. With the over-allotment option, that would reach roughly $100 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations.

On a fully diluted basis, Anthropic would be worth about $1.4 trillion at the top of the range. Reuters reports that the filing points to a basic valuation of up to about $1.02 trillion. Investors had at one point expected as much as $2 trillion.

The financials explain the debate. The company brought in $17 billion in revenue in the third quarter but swung to an operating loss, with a net loss of $23.3 billion. Its purchase and lease commitments, mostly for computing, total about $895.4 billion.

The IPO is set to price on Wednesday, Nov. 18. The AI cycle is absorbing a lot of capital. Microsoft sold $25 billion of bonds, and Oracle is raising $20 billion, half in common stock and half in senior notes. A successful IPO at high prices would support the whole sector. A weak reception would weigh on valuations from Palantir to Trade Desk.

Outlook: The Dates That Matter

Sentiment hinges on a few dates. Bitcoin options expire on Friday. Nvidia is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Nov. 17, and Anthropic is set to price its IPO on Nov. 18. The Fed’s next decision comes on December 9, the same day bids are due for The Children’s Place.

Until then, the question is whether a rate hike is already priced in or investors will still demand a premium. Today’s inflation data suggests the premium is not yet fully in the price. Companies with strong cash flow and outlooks that justify their valuations are best placed to carry that burden.

Best regards,
The StocksToday.com Editorial