Barrick Gold’s Transformative Year: Record Prices and Strategic Shifts

As the trading year draws to a close, Barrick Gold Corporation is positioned with formidable financial strength. The company has been a primary beneficiary of a historic surge in gold prices, with its equity value soaring nearly 200% in 2025. A series of strategic corporate developments, including a potential spin-off, leadership changes, and the resolution of a key operational dispute, are set to redefine the miner’s trajectory for the coming year.

Unprecedented Momentum from Gold Markets

The precious metals sector has witnessed an extraordinary rally in 2025. On Friday, December 26, the spot price of gold reached an all-time high of $4,530 per ounce. This surge is largely attributed to anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions, including sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers.

Within this environment, Barrick’s stock performance has significantly outpaced the broader market. Since the start of the year, its shares have advanced by approximately 198%, compared to a roughly 17% gain for the S&P 500. The company’s market capitalization now stands near $77 billion. As of September 30, Barrick held about $5 billion in liquid cash.

Operational and Financial Highlights

The third quarter of 2025 demonstrated robust operational performance:

• Gold production totaled 829,000 ounces.
• Copper output reached 55,000 tonnes.
• Operating cash flow was reported at $2.4 billion.
• Free cash flow generation hit $1.5 billion.

This strong cash generation enabled the board to return more capital to shareholders. On November 10, a 25% increase in the base quarterly dividend to $0.125 per share was declared. Including a performance-linked component, the total distribution for Q3 was $0.175 per share, paid on December 15.

Strategic Review of North American Portfolio

A major strategic development unfolded on December 1, when Barrick’s board unanimously approved an exploration of a potential initial public offering (IPO) for a new subsidiary. This entity, often referred to as “NewCo,” would consolidate the company’s core North American gold assets, including:

• Its 61.5% stake in the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture with Newmont.
• The Pueblo Viejo operation in the Dominican Republic.
• The 100%-owned Fourmile project in Nevada, which interim President and CEO Mark Hill has called “one of the most significant gold discoveries of this century.”

Analyst estimates suggest the portfolio under consideration could carry an enterprise value between $40 billion and $50 billion. This represents more than half of the group’s total value, despite the assets contributing only about half of its current production. A separation could unlock valuation upside, as North American gold miners typically trade at multiples two to three times higher than comparable African assets. Barrick plans to provide more details during its full-year 2025 results presentation in February 2026.

Leadership Transition and Board Developments

Significant changes have occurred within the company’s executive and board ranks:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick Mining?

• Mark Bristow stepped down as CEO on September 29 after nearly seven years. Mark Hill, the Group Chief Operating Officer, assumed the role of Interim President & CEO.
• On November 26, Ben van Beurden departed as Lead Independent Director, with Loreto Silva taking over the position.

These shifts come amid reports that activist investor Elliott Management has built a substantial stake in Barrick and is advocating for strategic adjustments, such as reducing exposure to politically risky jurisdictions.

Resolution of Mali Dispute

In December, Barrick successfully defused a major operational risk by reaching an agreement with the government of Mali concerning the Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex, a critical production cluster for the company.

Key terms of the settlement include:

• A ten-year extension of the mining license.
• Barrick’s agreement to comply with Mali’s 2023 mining code.
• The resumption of operational control by Barrick.

The dispute had halted operations since January 2025 due to disagreements over the implementation of the new mining law. The resolution removes a significant overhang on future production and cash flow from the region.

Market Valuation and Analyst Perspectives

Despite the substantial share price appreciation, several market analysts see further potential.

• In early December, Jefferies raised its price target from $46 to $55 per share, maintaining a positive outlook on gold equities.
• The stock currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 21.5, slightly below the industry average of 22.1 for metals and mining companies.
• Analyses using discounted cash flow models indicate the shares may still trade at a notable discount to their estimated intrinsic value.

2025 Production Guidance

Barrick has reaffirmed its full-year 2025 gold production forecast (excluding Loulo-Gounkoto) at a range of 3.15 to 3.5 million ounces. Management expects the final figure to trend toward the lower end of this range, with the highest quarterly output anticipated in the fourth quarter.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Several key milestones will shape Barrick’s narrative in the coming months:

• The February 2026 full-year results will provide an update on the potential North American asset separation.
• A search for a permanent successor to former CEO Mark Bristow is ongoing.
• A potential IPO for the North American subsidiary in 2026 remains a possibility pending a final decision.

Growth in copper production also remains a strategic driver. Output for 2025 is projected to rise by 12% to 482 million pounds, supported by expansion investments at the Lumwana mine in Zambia. This positions Barrick to benefit simultaneously from high gold prices and the increasing strategic importance of copper, creating a robust strategic footing for 2026.