Commerzbank has outperformed expectations in the European Banking Authority’s (EBA) latest stress test, showcasing remarkable resilience in a simulated severe economic crisis. Its core capital ratio would decline from 15.3% to 10.5%—far stronger than competitors like Deutsche Bank, which saw a steeper drop to 9.2%. The test envisioned a three-year EU-wide recession with GDP plunging 6.3%, unemployment soaring to 6.1%, and property values collapsing by nearly 30%. Commerzbank’s improved performance, with a smaller decline in capital buffers compared to 2023, signals a fortified financial position. Meanwhile, its stock surged to a 14-year high, buoyed by UniCredit’s strategic stake increase to 20.17% and BlackRock’s growing confidence, raising its direct holdings to 6.11%.
Earnings Test Looms for Record Rally
The bank’s soaring share price—more than doubling year-to-date—faces a critical test with upcoming quarterly results. While takeover speculation and operational success have fueled gains, disappointing figures could trigger a sharp correction. Market headwinds, including escalating U.S. tariffs, add pressure, yet Commerzbank’s stock defied broader European losses. Investors now watch whether fundamentals can justify its meteoric rise.
