Lockheed Martin Shares: Poised for a Breakout?

The American defense behemoth finds itself in a curious position. Despite analysts upgrading their earnings forecasts and the promise of multi-billion dollar contracts on the horizon, its stock price remains stagnant. Trading around $470, the shares are languishing below their 50-day moving average, even as strong fundamental catalysts appear ready to propel them forward. Is the market’s valuation about to catch up with the company’s robust business trajectory?

A Major Contract Catalyst: The Saudi F-35 Deal

Beyond optimistic earnings revisions, concrete contract wins are providing significant momentum. While Lockheed Martin recently secured a $12.4 million contract increase for its THAAD missile defense system, this is merely a prelude to a much larger opportunity. The impending F-35 export deal to Saudi Arabia holds far greater financial significance.

Market experts at Jefferies estimate this single agreement could generate approximately $4 billion in sales. This substantial long-term revenue driver is projected to contribute roughly $1.50 per share, a figure the market does not yet seem to have fully priced into the current stock value.

Diverging Analyst Views: From Hold to High Conviction

Wall Street’s outlook on the stock’s near-term potential is mixed. The prevailing consensus recommendation remains a “Hold,” with average price targets clustering between $513 and $518. However, Morgan Stanley presents a notably bullish counterpoint. The firm has assigned an “Overweight” rating to Lockheed Martin, accompanied by a standout $630 price target. This projection implies an upside potential exceeding 30 percent from current levels, signaling strong conviction in the company’s growth story.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lockheed?

Seaport’s Bullish Earnings Revision

Adding to the positive sentiment, Seaport Research Partners recently issued a notably optimistic assessment. The firm has meaningfully raised its full-year 2025 profit expectation to $28.11 per share, a significant jump from its previous forecast of $27.82. This adjustment places Seaport well above the current market consensus, which sits at approximately $27.15 per share, and indicates growing confidence in the corporation’s operational strength.

Looking further ahead, Seaport anticipates a consistent growth trajectory through 2026, with quarterly projections as follows:
* Q1 2026: $6.85
* Q2 2026: $7.21
* Q3 2026: $7.33
* Q4 2026: $7.97

The current technical weakness, with the share price trading below its 50-day average, stands in stark contrast to these underlying fundamental strengths. For investors betting on a market reassessment, this disconnect may present a compelling opportunity.