Mizuho Trims Price Target for D-Wave Quantum While Affirming Bullish Stance

In a move highlighting the complex dynamics of the quantum computing sector, analysts at Mizuho have revised their price target for D-Wave Quantum Inc. downward from $40 to $31 per share. Despite this reduction, the firm maintains its Outperform rating on the stock, signaling a continued long-term conviction even as near-term valuations face pressure.

A Sector-Wide Reassessment

The adjustment for D-Wave was part of a broader sector review conducted by Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh. The reassessment also led to lowered targets for two other key players: Rigetti Computing saw its target cut from $43 to $33, and IonQ’s was reduced from $80 to $61. All three companies retained their Outperform ratings from the bank.

Mizuho’s sustained optimism is rooted in what it sees as foundational progress across the industry. The adoption of NVQLink by multiple providers is noted as a positive step, enhancing quantum error correction and enabling more efficient hybrid workflows. Furthermore, the competitive race to surpass 200 logical qubits is intensifying, with the most ambitious industry roadmaps targeting this milestone between 2027 and 2029. The bank continues to project long-term upside potential exceeding 100% for these equities.

Strong Growth Meets Valuation Concerns

The company’s recent financial performance presents a dual narrative. For fiscal year 2025, D-Wave Quantum reported a 179% surge in revenue, reaching $24.6 million, alongside a robust gross margin of 82.6%. However, this growth was accompanied by expanding losses, with adjusted EBITDA losses widening to $71.8 million.

Indicators for the current year show promise, with bookings of $32.8 million reported for the first two months of fiscal 2026, suggesting strengthening demand. The company’s liquidity position has also significantly improved, climbing to $884.5 million—nearly five times the level from the prior year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?

Nevertheless, significant headwinds persist. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple above 200. Share dilution remains a concern, with an increase of approximately 67% over the past year. Additionally, the competitive landscape shifted with IonQ’s acquisition of SkyWater, a supplier to D-Wave. Currently trading around $14, the share price sits roughly 69% below its 52-week high of $46.75.

Boosting Commercial Visibility

Amid this analytical scrutiny, D-Wave is launching a new initiative to raise its commercial profile. The company debuted a podcast titled “Quantum Matters,” hosted by Murray Thom, Vice President of Quantum Technology Evangelism. The bi-weekly show, available on YouTube and major podcast platforms, will focus on practical quantum applications in manufacturing, supply chain logistics, and aerospace.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds and the Critical Question

The sector is receiving considerable governmental support, which may provide a tailwind. The UK has committed approximately $2.7 billion to quantum computing initiatives, while Canada is investing about $1 billion in defense-related quantum technology. In the United States, funding continues through the National Quantum Initiative and the CHIPS Act, with provisions extending to 2034.

The pivotal question for the 15 analysts who, on average, rate D-Wave Quantum a “Strong Buy,” is whether these substantial public investments can help bridge the current valuation gap before sustained losses erode corporate capital. The interplay between breakthrough technological progress, rapid commercial growth, and intense market valuation pressure continues to define the quantum computing investment thesis.