Nel ASA Shares Show Signs of Technical Rebound Amid Sector Momentum

The new year has brought a modest technical recovery for Nel ASA’s stock. While breaking above a key short-term moving average, the shares remain constrained within a broader medium-term downtrend. This upward movement is supported by a rally across the hydrogen sector and a strategically significant corporate investment decision.

Sector Momentum and Strategic Investment

Hydrogen-related equities enjoyed a broadly positive start to 2026. Companies such as Plug Power and thyssenkrupp nucera posted double-digit percentage gains in the initial trading sessions, creating a supportive backdrop for Nel’s performance.

A key catalyst was an announcement made on December 12, 2025. Nel ASA confirmed the final investment decision to industrialize its “Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline” platform at its Herøya facility in Norway. Backed by up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund, this project is designed to enhance the company’s competitive position against Chinese manufacturers.

Navigating Key Technical Levels

The stock’s recent price action indicates a shift in short-term momentum. On Monday, it crossed above the 50-day moving average, situated near NOK 2.34, closing around NOK 2.30. This follows a 52-week low of approximately NOK 1.95 recorded in recent months.

The positive trend extended into Tuesday’s session, with shares closing at NOK 2.33, a gain of 0.95%. Trading ranged between NOK 2.29 and NOK 2.34 on a volume of roughly 3.4 million shares, notably below the three-month average of 5.6 million.

Despite this near-term improvement, the broader picture reveals ongoing challenges. Since early December 2025, the equity has declined by about 4.2% and continues to trade approximately 2.3% below its 200-day moving average—a signal that the primary downward trend persists.

Core Financial Metrics

Nel enters 2026 with a relatively solid balance sheet position:

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

• Liquidity: NOK 1.76 billion as of September 30, 2025
• Q3 2025 Contract Revenue: NOK 303 million (NOK 366 million in the prior-year period)
• Q3 2025 EBITDA: Negative NOK 37 million (an improvement from negative NOK 90 million in Q3 2024)
• Market Capitalization: Approximately NOK 4.28 billion
• 52-Week Range: NOK 1.95 to NOK 3.61

These figures underscore that, while still operating at a loss, the company’s earnings trajectory is showing signs of improvement.

Analyst Perspectives and Price Targets

From a charting standpoint, immediate resistance levels are identified at NOK 2.28 and NOK 2.37. Technical analysts suggest that a sustained breakout above these thresholds could generate additional buy signals. The stock exhibits higher volatility than the broader market, with a beta coefficient of 1.42.

The consensus among fundamental analysts presents an average 12-month price target of NOK 2.28, aligning closely with the current trading level. However, the range of estimates is wide, spanning from NOK 1.20 to NOK 4.20, reflecting significant uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook.

Forward Focus: Financials and Product Launch

The upcoming quarters will be critical for assessing the strategic shift centered on the new alkaline platform. Nel’s commercial launch for the system is scheduled for the first half of 2026, with plans to achieve industrial-scale delivery capacity of 1 GW by 2027.

Key upcoming milestones include:

• Late February 2026: Publication of Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 results
• First Half of 2026: Commercial launch of the Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline platform
• From 2027 Onward: Ramp-up of volume deliveries from the new 1 GW capacity

For a sustained reversal in the share price, investors will be watching closely to see if Nel can demonstrate a clear increase in order intake and secure concrete contracts related to the new platform, starting with the financial report at the end of February.