Oracle’s Pivotal Week: Earnings and AI Ambitions in Focus

Oracle Corporation faces a critical market test on March 10, with the release of its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results. In the lead-up, a mix of analyst revisions, funding questions surrounding its massive “Stargate” AI project, and an unexpected Formula 1 partnership extension are driving investor sentiment. The atmosphere is one of high expectations tempered by significant uncertainty.

Diverging Analyst Views Create a Murky Picture

Market experts are deeply divided on the software giant’s prospects. On March 4, RBC Capital slashed its price target to $160 from $195, citing a debt load exceeding $100 billion and negative free cash flow of approximately $10 billion. Evercore ISI also reduced its target, moving from $275 to $220, though it maintained an “Outperform” rating.

In contrast, Citigroup remains optimistic with a $310 target, adjusted from $370. Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to “Outperform” on February 25. The consensus view still leans bullish, with 25 “Buy” ratings outweighing six “Hold” recommendations.

The Stargate Project: A $225 Billion Question

Central to the investment debate is Oracle’s “Stargate” initiative, a collaborative project to build AI infrastructure. The endeavor requires constructing 4.5 gigawatts of data center capacity, with estimated costs ranging from $180 billion to $225 billion.

A significant development occurred in late 2025 when Blue Owl, the primary funding partner, withdrew from financing a 1-gigawatt campus in Michigan. The firm cited less favorable leasing terms and concerns over rising debt levels. Oracle has since stated the project’s capital requirements are “significantly lower” than initially communicated and is seeking alternative partners.

RBC analyst Rishi Jaluria has called for concrete evidence that the expansion of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) remains on schedule. The company’s ambitious forecast projects Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) revenue to hit $18 billion this fiscal year, rising to $32 billion the next—a goal entirely dependent on physical infrastructure build-out.

Wall Street’s Expectations and Lingering Doubts

Analysts, on average, anticipate earnings per share of $1.71, which would represent year-over-year growth of 16.3%. Revenue is projected to climb roughly 20% to $16.9 billion. Following its Q2 report, Oracle itself guided for cloud revenue growth of 37% to 41% in constant currency.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Oracle?

The announcement of the earnings date provided a temporary boost, with shares advancing 2.25% on the day. This reflected a cautiously positive mood, overshadowed by more fundamental concerns.

A Look Back at a Contradictory Quarter

The previous quarter presented a mixed picture. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)—a measure of future revenue—soared by 438% to $523 billion, fueled by major contracts with companies like Meta and Nvidia. Cloud revenue grew 34% to $8.0 billion, with cloud infrastructure alone surging 66%.

Despite these growth figures, total revenue disappointed expectations. The stock subsequently fell 11%, as the market penalized Oracle for its massive order pipeline not yet translating into corresponding sales.

Formula 1 Deal: A High-Profile Technology Showcase

Away from the quarterly numbers, Oracle announced an extension of its title partnership with the Red Bull Racing Formula 1 team. The collaboration will see the team develop its new power unit using OCI and deploy an AI-powered strategy assistant.

For Oracle, this move is less about sports marketing and more a public, high-stakes demonstration of its technology portfolio. It serves as a visible customer reference for its cloud infrastructure, AI tools, and Fusion applications under extreme conditions.

The March 10 Spotlight: Capacity and Conversion

When Oracle reports, investors will focus intently on cloud growth metrics and AI demand signals. The key questions will be whether management can show tangible progress in data center expansion and provide clarity on when the enormous contract volumes will convert into recognized revenue. The rate at which RPO turns into actual sales remains the critical factor—and will likely determine if the stock can recover its recent losses.