Rigetti Computing: Technical Hurdle Tempers Bullish Analyst Outlook

While prominent financial institutions are projecting substantial upside for Rigetti Computing’s stock, the quantum computing firm faces a pressing technical challenge that has delayed a key product launch, creating a tension between near-term execution and long-term potential.

Strong Backlog Amid Revenue Pressures

The company’s recent financial performance revealed mixed signals. For the third quarter of 2025, Rigetti reported revenue of $1.95 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 18.1%. Its net margin remains deeply negative at -4,741%.

However, the firm’s order book tells a more promising story. It has recently secured two significant contracts:
* A $5.7 million agreement for sales of its Novera systems.
* A $5.8 million contract awarded by the Air Force Research Laboratory.

Management anticipates these deals will drive a revenue increase of 17.7% in the fourth quarter. Investors will get a clearer picture when the company releases its next quarterly results on March 4, 2026, offering an opportunity to potentially offset news of technical delays with stronger commercial figures.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rigetti?

The Cepheus Delay: A Precision Shortfall

At the heart of the current challenge is the company’s flagship 108-qubit system, named “Cepheus.” Its commercial availability has been postponed to late March 2026. The delay stems from the system’s current 2-qubit gate fidelity, which stands at 99.0%. This falls short of the 99.5% threshold Rigetti has set for a market-ready product.

For context, competitor IBM has reported achieving an error-free rate of 99.92%. Rigetti’s technical team is focused on optimizing its tunable coupler technology to improve precision. Whether this engineering effort will be successful by the end of the first quarter remains an open question, highlighting the intensely competitive and precise nature of quantum computing development.

Wall Street’s Bullish Stance Despite Setbacks

Despite the product delay, analyst sentiment toward Rigetti remains notably positive. On January 16, 2026, Rosenblatt Securities initiated coverage with a “Buy” rating and a $40 price target. Mizuho analysts expressed even greater optimism, assigning an “Outperform” rating and setting a $50 target. These targets suggest a potential near-doubling of the share price from recent levels.

This analyst confidence is largely rooted in Rigetti’s modular quantum computer architecture and the perceived long-term growth trajectory of the quantum computing sector. The broader analyst consensus currently leans toward a “Moderate Buy” rating, with average price targets clustering between $32 and $38. The coming months will test whether the company’s commercial progress can keep pace with this Wall Street optimism.