Rocket Lab’s Soaring Orders Fail to Lift Its Depressed Share Price

Despite booking a landmark contract with the European Space Agency (ESA) and seeing its order backlog swell, Rocket Lab USA’s stock has paradoxically trended downward in 2026. This divergence between robust operational performance and weak market sentiment is drawing attention from analysts.

A Strategic European Partnership

The company recently completed its first dedicated mission for the ESA, successfully launching the initial two satellites of the planned Celeste constellation into low Earth orbit. Dubbed “Daughter Of The Stars,” this mission utilized Rocket Lab’s workhorse Electron rocket. The Celeste network, a joint development by GMV and Thales, is designed to test new telecommunications technologies and support European navigation systems like Galileo. This achievement adds the ESA to Rocket Lab’s prestigious roster of government clients, which already includes NASA and Japan’s JAXA. The launch marked the company’s sixth successful mission this year.

Operational Momentum Versus Market Performance

The company’s commercial momentum is undeniable. Rocket Lab sold 28 new launches in Q1 2026 alone, and its total backlog now stands at over $1.85 billion. A significant contributor to this figure is a recent $190 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, covering 20 hypersonic test flights.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab USA?

However, this strong fundamental picture has not translated to gains on the stock market. Following a substantial rally in the previous year, the equity has declined by nearly 22% since the start of January 2026, with its current price at $59.54. Most market researchers view this gap between business execution and share price trajectory as a potential opportunity, citing an average price target of $87.84.

Upcoming Catalysts on the Horizon

Investors are looking to imminent quarterly results for the next catalyst, with revenue forecasts for the period ranging between $185 million and $200 million. Strategically, focus is also building towards the fourth quarter of 2026, which is slated for the maiden flight of Rocket Lab’s new, much larger Neutron rocket—a key component of its long-term growth strategy.