Dear readers,
On Friday, we closed with a warning: keep a close eye on the Middle East this weekend. The geopolitical premium on oil and defense stocks, we wrote, could gap significantly by Monday morning. That gap arrived faster and more violently than anyone anticipated.
When news of “Operation Epic Fury” crossed the wires early this Saturday morning, the weekend evaporated. The United States and Israel have launched major, coordinated military operations against Iran, plunging the region into its most severe conflict in decades and sending immediate tremors through every market still open for trading. From the Strait of Hormuz to the corridors of Hollywood—where a historic media consolidation just reached its conclusion—the landscape American investors will confront Monday morning has been fundamentally redrawn.
Here is what you need to know this Saturday afternoon.
The Middle East Erupts: “Epic Fury” Meets “Lion’s Roar”
The scale of military action initiated today is staggering. President Donald Trump announced the beginning of “major combat operations” aimed at eliminating the Iranian regime’s threat, targeting its missile industry, navy, and nuclear program in a follow-up to 2025’s “Operation Midnight Hammer.” In a video address, Trump explicitly called for regime change, urging the Iranian people to seize their “hour of freedom.” Simultaneously, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced “Operation Lion’s Roar,” framing it as a preemptive strike.
Tehran’s retaliation was immediate. Iranian missile strikes targeted not only Israel but US troop positions across the Gulf, including the Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, along with installations in Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. The human cost is already devastating—Iranian state media reports at least 57 schoolgirls killed in a missile strike in Hormozgan province.
The economic fallout is cascading in real time. Israel has temporarily shuttered parts of its gas infrastructure, including the Chevron-operated Leviathan field. In northern Iraq, Emirati firm Dana Gas has suspended supplies from the critical Khor Mor field. And most consequentially for global energy markets, several major oil companies and trading houses have halted all shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The $100 Barrel and the Inflation Nightmare
Friday’s newsletter flagged the Hormuz chokepoint as the variable that could rewrite the inflation narrative overnight. That rewrite may now be underway.
The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas trade. Brent crude currently sits near $73 per barrel—a figure that looks almost quaint given today’s developments. Analysts at Capital Economics warn that an Iranian blockade of the Strait could drive prices violently toward $100, while even a limited conflict scenario pushes their forecast to $80.
The math cascades quickly. Capital Economics estimates that a $100 oil scenario would add 0.7 percentage points to global inflation. Recall that last week’s Producer Price Index already came in hot at 2.9% year-over-year, with core readings jumping to 3.6%. Layer a geopolitically driven energy shock on top of already sticky wholesale inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s path to rate relief becomes far more treacherous. Wealth managers are already steering clients toward gold, utilities, healthcare, and high-dividend defensive positions—the classic wartime playbook.
Crypto as the Weekend Seismograph
With equities dark until Monday, digital assets became the only real-time gauge of global risk appetite. The readings are grim.
Bitcoin dropped 2% to $63,000 before clawing back toward $64,000. Ether fell roughly 3% to $1,862. But the derivatives market tells the sharper story: over $500 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with $420 million of that wiped from long positions. Perpetual funding rates cratered to -6%—their lowest level in three months—signaling a sudden, decisive pivot toward bearish positioning as traders shed risk exposure.
For investors watching these moves as a proxy for Monday’s equity open, the message is unambiguous: the market is pricing fear, not opportunity.
Skydance’s $110 Billion Media Empire
While the world watches the Gulf, a quieter but equally consequential power shift has concluded in American media. Paramount Skydance—led by David and Larry Ellison—has officially closed its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for approximately $110 billion, including debt.
Friday’s newsletter covered the final stages of this bidding war. Netflix, which had tabled an $82.7 billion offer for select WBD assets, has now formally withdrawn, walking away with a $2.8 billion breakup fee. The Ellisons’ combined empire now houses HBO, CNN, DC Comics, the Harry Potter franchise, CBS, MTV, and Nickelodeon under a single corporate roof—arguably the most formidable content portfolio assembled since the old studio system.
The deal carries unmistakable political freight. The Ellisons are known allies of President Trump, who had previously pressured Netflix to dismiss board member Susan Rice. Trump-aligned commentators are already framing the acquisition as a cultural victory, while CNN staffers have reportedly voiced concerns about future editorial independence. In an era where media ownership and political alignment are increasingly inseparable, this consolidation demands scrutiny that extends well beyond the balance sheet.
AI’s Physical Reality Check
The artificial intelligence investment thesis took another hit from the unglamorous world of concrete and steel. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), one of the most closely watched AI cloud infrastructure companies, faces a March 13 deadline for a securities class action lawsuit. Investors allege the company overstated its capacity to meet customer demand while concealing severe construction delays at its data centers. The stock suffered a brutal 16% decline last November, compounded by a 6% drop weeks earlier when a merger with Core Scientific collapsed.
It is a pointed reminder that the AI boom runs on physical infrastructure, not pitch decks—and that execution risk in the buildout phase is very real.
Meanwhile, international capital is beginning to hedge its American tech exposure. A new ING survey shows nearly 30% of Dutch retail investors are scaling back US market positions due to geopolitical strain, redirecting capital toward European markets and sustainable energy—wind and solar in particular. The irony is rich: those same renewable sectors are seeing surging demand precisely because they power the global AI data center expansion. For context, a recent UBS report pegged the EU’s total AI investment at €337 billion in 2024, roughly 56% of US levels—a gap that represents significant catch-up potential for European allocators willing to bet on the continent’s infrastructure buildout.
The Takeaway
When futures trading opens tomorrow evening, crude oil and defense contractors will command every screen on every trading desk in America. The escalation in the Middle East has fundamentally altered the risk calculus for the week ahead. Geopolitical risk premiums that seemed theoretical on Friday are now being priced in real time, and the inflation trajectory the Fed thought it understood may be rewritten barrel by barrel.
I hope you manage to find some measure of calm this weekend. We will be watching the Asian market open closely tomorrow night and will have a full briefing ready for Monday morning.
Best regards,
The StocksToday.com Editorial
