Political Uncertainty Clouds Ørsted’s Operational Recovery

While Ørsted has successfully executed an operational turnaround, its future ownership structure faces renewed scrutiny. The upcoming Danish parliamentary election on March 24th has reignited a longstanding debate: how much longer will the wind energy giant remain under state control?

Strong Financial Performance in 2025

The company’s 2025 fiscal year marked a significant improvement over prior challenging periods. Adjusted EBITDA reached 25.1 billion Danish kroner, landing within the targeted range of 24 to 27 billion. The bottom line showed an annual profit of 3.2 billion kroner.

Performance was notably robust in the offshore segment. According to analysts at Jefferies, this division exceeded expectations by approximately 4%, driven by lower development costs and improved asset performance. The onshore business surpassed consensus estimates by about 24%, largely due to gains from asset disposals.

Ørsted has now completed its divestment program. The sale of its entire European onshore portfolio to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners for 1.44 billion euros was a key component. Combined with the 50% divestment of Hornsea 3 and the agreed partial sale of Changhua 2, total transaction proceeds from 2025 and 2026 amount to roughly 46 billion kroner. This figure surpasses the company’s self-imposed target of more than 35 billion kroner.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Orsted?

Election Poses Ownership Questions

The political landscape introduces a layer of uncertainty. Four right-leaning parties—the Conservative People’s Party, Liberal Alliance, Danish People’s Party, and Denmark Democrats—are advocating for the state to divest its stake in Ørsted. Together with the Liberals, who are not opposing the initiative, these parties hold around 40% of the parliamentary seats.

This demand emerges at a politically sensitive moment. Just last October, the Danish state participated in a 60-billion-kroner capital increase, covering half the amount, to rescue the company. Jakob Magnussen, head of credit research at Danske Bank, views a potential shift to a right-leaning government as a pivotal moment for the ownership structure. However, based on current polling, he considers such a change less probable. The latest DR poll projects the five right-wing parties securing 74 of the 179 parliamentary seats, well short of a majority.

Guidance and Market Sentiment

Looking ahead to 2026, Ørsted anticipates an adjusted EBITDA exceeding 28 billion kroner. In a February note, Berenberg raised its price target from 140 to 180 Danish kroner and reaffirmed its buy recommendation. The analysts cited the company’s cautious resumption of long-term growth planning following a period of high volatility.

The company’s next quarterly report is scheduled for May 6th. Until then, the election outcome on March 24th is likely to influence the share price more decisively than any operational metric.