Eli Lilly’s Foundayo Stumbles Out of the Gate, Putting Pressure on Upcoming Earnings

Eli Lilly investors endured another bruising week as the pharmaceutical giant’s stock slid nearly 5% on Friday, closing at €750. The sell-off pushed the shares roughly 21% below their 52-week high and dragged them beneath the closely watched 200-day moving average of €782 — a technical signal that has rattled market participants already nursing year-to-date losses of almost 19%.

The culprit? Disappointing prescription data for Foundayo, Lilly’s first oral weight-loss medication, which managed just 3,700 scripts in its second week on the market. That figure looks particularly anemic next to the 18,000-plus prescriptions that Novo Nordisk’s rival pill Wegovy generated during the same post-launch window. The gap has ignited debate about whether the new drug is gaining traction with physicians and patients.

Core Business Holds Steady Despite Headwinds

Beyond the Foundayo narrative, Lilly’s established GLP-1 portfolio continues to churn out solid numbers. The combined weekly prescriptions for Mounjaro, Trulicity and Zepbound recently topped 1.3 million, with the company maintaining a roughly 59% share of new prescriptions in the category. Stability, however, is not the same as growth — and markets have been pricing in expansion.

Wall Street analysts remain broadly bullish, arguing the recent sell-off has overshot reality. Morgan Stanley recently lifted its price target to $1,327 with an “Overweight” rating, while Guggenheim reaffirmed its “Buy” call and raised its target to $1,183. Bernstein is also said to be standing firmly behind the stock. The consensus view: the underlying business fundamentals do not justify the current valuation discount.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Eli Lilly?

Earnings Day Looms as Key Inflection Point

All eyes now turn to April 30, when Lilly reports first-quarter results. The consensus calls for revenue of $17.6 billion — a 38% year-over-year jump — and earnings per share of $6.87, more than double the $3.34 recorded in the same period last year.

Management’s full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue between $80 billion and $83 billion, with a non-GAAP margin of 46% to 47.5%. The critical question is whether the company will reaffirm those targets or trim them in light of Foundayo’s sluggish start. A downward revision would likely deepen the stock’s recent slide, while a confident outlook could provide the catalyst needed to reverse course.

Adding to the mix, Lilly has also reported progress on a kidney study for its experimental candidate LY3537982, with data collection now complete — a positive signal for the early-stage pipeline that could help offset some of the near-term anxiety.

For now, the shares look set to remain volatile until management steps up to the microphone next Tuesday and addresses the Foundayo launch, the competitive landscape, and the path forward for the broader portfolio.