BASF Completes Initial Buyback Phase as €12 Billion Capital Return Program Gathers Pace

The first chapter of BASF’s ambitious shareholder payout story is closing. By the end of June, the chemicals giant will have wrapped up the initial €1.5 billion tranche of its share repurchase programme, buying back nearly 31 million shares since last November. Those shares are now being cancelled, reducing the company’s share capital and giving a mechanical boost to the value of every remaining share. But this is only the appetiser: management has pledged to return a total of €12 billion to investors through a combination of buybacks and dividends by the end of 2028.

Under that plan, shareholders can count on an annual dividend of at least €2.25 per share. Combined with the multiple buyback tranches still to come, the payout profile is designed to keep investors rewarded even as the broader chemical industry struggles. The precise schedule for the next buyback phase has yet to be announced, however, leaving the market without a clear near-term demand catalyst once the current programme ends.

On the cost side, BASF is leaning hard on savings to protect its margins. By March the group had already slashed €1.9 billion in costs, and it is targeting a further €2.3 billion in reductions by year-end. That internal discipline paid off in the first quarter, when earnings per share climbed to €1.06. For the full year, BASF expects operating profit before special items to land between €6.2 billion and €7.0 billion, with free cash flow reaching as much as €2.3 billion.

The need for such self-help is acute. Germany’s chemical industry association VCI forecasts that domestic chemical production will shrink in 2026, with falling prices dragging down sector revenues. BASF cannot rely on a tailwind from the broader market; it must generate growth from its own restructuring and cost-cutting initiatives.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?

Meanwhile, the buyback programme itself is winding down with a final push. In mid-June alone, BASF scooped up 235,000 of its own shares on the Xetra electronic trading platform. In total, it has spent the full €1.5 billion allocated to this first tranche, repurchasing roughly 31 million shares. The cancellation of those shares will permanently remove that supply from the market, though the removal of the ongoing buyback support also means the stock loses a structural demand buffer.

At the bourse, BASF shares have held up reasonably well. They currently trade at just under €49, having gained about 9% to 10% since the start of the year. The price sits comfortably above the 200-day moving average, a technical signal that investors have bought into the narrative of operational stability and generous capital returns.

The next major catalyst comes in July 2026, when BASF will report its half-year results. Alongside the quarterly figures, the market will be looking for concrete details on the timing and size of the next buyback tranche. Without that clarity, the recent share price momentum could prove hard to sustain in the face of persistent industry headwinds.