Voestalpine’s Paradox: Profit Surges 138% But Shares Slide 12% as EU and US Tariff Storms Gather

The Austrian steelmaker Voestalpine is heading into a critical week with a glaring disconnect between its financial health and its stock price. While the company’s net profit nearly doubled in its last fiscal year, the shares have tumbled 12.6% over the past 30 days, closing at €41.70 on Friday. Two major events on Wednesday 1 July could either narrow that gap or widen it further: the annual general meeting in Linz and the tightening of European Union steel import safeguards.

Record Earnings and a Thinner Debt Load

The numbers behind last year’s performance are striking. Voestalpine grew its net profit by 138% to €424 million, driven by a 10% revenue increase to €15.1 billion and an operating profit (EBIT) of €1.5 billion. At the same time, management chipped away at the company’s net financial debt, pushing its gearing ratio to the lowest level in two decades. This leaner balance sheet gives the group more headroom, but the market’s focus remains squarely on external trade pressures.

Dividend Vote and the Weight of Treasury Shares

On the AGM agenda is the proposed payout of €0.75 per share, up from the previous year. The meeting also shines a light on Voestalpine’s own shares – the company holds around 7.1 million treasury stocks, representing roughly 4% of issued capital. These shares carry no voting rights, which amplifies the relative sway of the remaining shareholders on every ballot.

EU Knife Cuts Deeper into Steel Imports

That same Wednesday, the EU’s revamped steel protection measures kick in. The volume of tariff-free imports will be halved to 18.3 million tonnes a year, and any steel brought in beyond that quota will face a 50% duty, double the previous rate. From October, the “melt-and-pour” rule will also force importers to prove where the steel was originally smelted and cast, a move designed to clamp down on shipments that detour through third countries to dodge duties.

For Voestalpine, Europe’s relatively low-carbon steel producer, the accompanying Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) offers a structural edge over Asian rivals – a competitive advantage that grows as CBAM enforcement ramps up in 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Voestalpine?

The US Tariff Headache Won’t Fade

Across the Atlantic, the situation remains a drag. The United States continues to levy a 50% tariff on steel imports under Section 232, and the recent EU-US trade deal explicitly excludes steel, aluminium and copper from a proposed 15% tariff cap. Voestalpine’s management has already flagged a hit of €60 million to €80 million from these US duties. The impact is visible: EU steel exports to the US slipped from 4.1 million tonnes in 2024 to 3.4 million tonnes in 2025, and the company’s speciality tube factory in Kindberg, Austria, has had to scale back production.

Bullish Guidance and Aerospace Tailwinds

Despite the trade headwinds, management is guiding for an operating profit between €1.60 billion and €1.85 billion this year. A key catalyst is the aerospace sector: Voestalpine has locked in a multi-billion-euro order from Airbus, underpinning the upbeat forecast.

Technical Picture: Oversold but Not Out of the Woods

The stock’s recent slide has pushed the relative strength index (RSI) to 36.2, a level that typically signals a share is oversold and due for a bounce. Yet the price sits around 7% below its 50-day moving average of €44.98. On a longer view, the recovery from the 52-week low of €23.36 still leaves holders with a 73% gain – cold comfort for those who bought more recently.

The Next Test Awaits in August

Voestalpine will release its first-quarter results on 5 August 2026. Until then, the market’s reaction to the combined punch of a shareholder vote, tighter EU import quotas and persistent US tariffs will shape the near-term trajectory. The fundamental story is strong, but the stock is navigating one of its most complex policy environments in years.