Partners Group’s Insiders Have Spent $60 Million on Shares. The July 15 Update Will Tell Them If They Were Right

The top brass at Partners Group has been sending an unmistakable signal. Since February, company insiders have snapped up nearly 60 million Swiss francs worth of their own stock, with 31 million francs of that coming in June alone. Co-founder Alfred Gantner also added to his stake. Yet the market has barely blinked. The shares have lost more than 34% this year, trading at €705.20 — just 2.6% above the 52-week low of €686.80 — and the relative strength index has plunged to 25.1, deep in oversold territory.

Why are insiders buying while everyone else is selling? The answer lies in a redemption crisis that has shaken confidence in the Swiss private-markets giant. In early June, Partners Group was forced to cap withdrawals from its flagship Evergreen fund, the Partners Group Global Value SICAV. That vehicle, which manages $8.6 billion, received redemption requests equal to 9.8% of its net asset value — nearly double the contractual quarterly limit of 5%. A related Delaware vehicle saw requests of about 6%. The management responded by paying out only 62% of the requests in May, a move that stunned retail investors who had been drawn to the promise of liquidity in private equity.

The damage has been swift. The Evergreen platform, which supplies nearly half of the group’s revenue, now faces a projected drag on net asset growth of one to two percentage points in the second half of 2026 and all of 2027. And that is before factoring in the assault from Grizzly Research, a US short-seller that claims the Evergreen funds are overvalued by as much as 40%. Partners Group has dismissed the allegations as baseless and filed a criminal complaint, but the stock has kept sliding.

Analysts have responded by slashing their forecasts. Jefferies has a hold rating with a target of 760 francs, Bank of America holds at 850 francs, and Octavian remains a buyer at 1,175 francs. Oddo BHF downgraded to hold. The consensus is cautious, but the insider buying suggests management believes the sell-off is overdone.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Partners Group?

The key to understanding Partners Group’s predicament lies in the split nature of its client base. Institutional investors represent more than 80% of customers and generated over 80% of first-quarter inflows. These are sophisticated players who view liquidity restrictions as a structural feature of private markets, not a red flag. They are unlikely to panic. Retail investors, however, are a different story. For them, a redemption cap is a psychological blow that may accelerate withdrawals once the limits are lifted.

The bull case rests on that institutional stickiness. Partners Group reaffirmed its 2026 gross new money guidance of $26 billion to $32 billion and expects net inflows into Evergreen funds to stay positive for the first half. A broader recovery in private-equity exits could also help. The bear case warns that once trust erodes, it is hard to rebuild, and that the one to two percentage point growth slowdown could deepen if retail redemptions persist.

All eyes are now on July 15, when the company releases its trading update. Management will reveal the latest assets under management, currently $184.9 billion. If that figure has fallen, the stock could face another leg down. If it holds or rises, the insider buying may look prescient. The stakes are enormous: the projected dividend yield already stands at over 6.5%, implying the market is pricing in a much weaker outlook than the board is.

In the end, the battle for Partners Group will be decided by two numbers: gross inflows and net Evergreen outflows. Both will be laid bare next week. The insiders have put their money where their mouth is. Now the data will show whether they were buying a bargain or catching a falling knife.