IperionX Shares Pop 11% as Texas Capital Joins Bull Camp – But the Bear Case Is Still Priced In

IperionX snapped a devastating losing streak on Tuesday, surging nearly 11% to close at €2.63 in European trading. The bounce was the stock’s biggest single-session gain in weeks, yet it barely dented a brutal 29% rout over the prior 30 days. From the January 2026 52-week high of €5.09, the shares have now lost nearly half their value — a decline that has left the valuation deeply out of step with the bullish forecasts now piling up on Wall Street.

Texas Capital Securities became the latest to throw its weight behind the stock, with analyst Matthew Key initiating coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $55. That figure — roughly 20 times Tuesday’s closing level — underscores the yawning gap between current market sentiment and the long-term potential some analysts see in the company’s titanium and critical minerals strategy. Canaccord Genuity likewise reiterated its buy call on June 25 with an 8.90 Australian dollar target, while the consensus sits at a moderate buy with an average target of 8.58 Australian dollars.

The disconnect stems from a flurry of operational developments that haven’t yet translated into revenue. IperionX this month released the feasibility study for its Tennessee titanium project near Camden, showing an after-tax net present value of $813 million, an internal rate of return of 39%, and a payback period of 3.6 years over a 14-year mine life. Just days later, the company agreed to buy mining assets from Covia Holdings for $3 million, adding to the more than $60 million in U.S. government support it has received since January 2023. On the production front, IperionX has moved its Virginia plant from pilot to continuous operation, installing a six-axis, 300-tonne powder metallurgy press that can produce up to 11 million components a year — tripling its previous capacity. The company ended the period with $48.2 million in cash.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IperionX?

Yet the market remains fixated on the burn. IperionX has yet to generate meaningful sales, and the cost of building out these operations is weighing heavily on the stock. The resulting technical picture is bleak: the shares trade 31% below their 200-day moving average, the relative strength index sits at 35 — near oversold territory — and the stock’s 77% volatility reading points to extreme investor skittishness. Should the support around the 52-week low of €1.82 fail, a fresh wave of selling could follow.

For the bulls, the second half of 2026 is shaping up as the critical proving ground. The transition to serial production in Virginia and the ramp-up of the Tennessee project will test whether IperionX can execute on the timeline baked into those ambitious analyst targets. Until then, the stock’s violent swings — and the tension between a €2-and-change share price and a $55 price target — look set to continue.