T-Mobile US Legal Dispute and Deutsche Telekom Share Buyback: A Test for the German Telecom Giant

The Deutsche Telekom share is trading at its most oversold level in nearly a year, yet the company is betting on a combination of tactical share repurchases, a radical US network overhaul, and record sports viewership to change the narrative. The stock closed Friday at €25.20, a 4.22% weekly decline that extended its monthly loss to 10.16%. From the February high of €34.35, the share is down 26.64% — a gap that analysts expect the ongoing buyback programme to help close.

On 1 July, Deutsche Telekom launched the third tranche of its €2 billion buyback plan, targeting up to 22 million shares worth roughly €560 million by the end of September. The first two tranches already saw the company repurchase more than 35 million shares for around €1.01 billion. Most of these are destined to be cancelled, boosting earnings per share for remaining holders, while a smaller portion flows into employee participation schemes.

But the buyback is running alongside a series of operational disruptions, notably at T‑Mobile US. The American subsidiary will permanently shut down its 2G network on 3 August, freeing up spectrum for 5G and 6G services. That transition alone forces roughly 142 million customers to migrate to new plans, and the company has indicated that price adjustments are possible.

Perhaps more immediately critical is a legal battle with Broadcom over VMware support fees. T‑Mobile US is in the process of migrating tens of thousands of virtual machines away from VMware servers — the migration involves over 300,000 CPU cores and more than 1,000 applications, according to court filings. A temporary restraining order ensures Broadcom support only until early August. The company is racing to assert its independence from the existing licensing model.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?

Despite these operational headwinds, the German telecom’s media division is delivering a bright spot. MagentaTV, riding the football World Cup, more than doubled its subscription sales compared with the European Championship two years ago. Over 36 million viewers tuned in during the first seven match days alone, and a single game drew 6.5 million viewers. TV chief Arnim Butzen described the performance as “record-breaking.”

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Barclays trimmed its price target from €39.50 to €36.50 on 1 July but kept an “Overweight” rating, pointing to rising competitive pressure from satellite services such as Starlink and the ongoing EU debate over harmonising 5G and 6G spectrum auctions. UBS reaffirmed its buy recommendation on 3 July. Both targets sit well above the current €25.20 level. The stock now trades just 7.05% above its 52-week low of €23.54, hit on 30 June.

Technically, the relative strength index of 36.9 signals an oversold condition. The share is trading 12.43% below its 200-day moving average of €28.78 and 8.49% below the 50-day average. Investors will get a clearer picture on 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom reports second‑quarter and first‑half results, with the market focused on the free‑cash‑flow target of roughly €19.8 billion for full‑year 2026. Meanwhile, Dr. Uwe Heckert has taken over as CEO of the consulting subsidiary Detecon, adding a fresh management layer to the group’s broader restructuring efforts.