Ondas Holdings: Record Orders Fail to Lift Stock from Six-Month Lows as Dilution Overhang Weighs

Ondas Holdings racked up over $150 million in new orders during the second quarter, including $40 million in June alone, as government and defence clients rushed to secure autonomous drone-defence and precision-strike platforms. Yet the company’s shares closed last week at €6.65, a level not seen since late 2025, after losing nearly 34% of their value over the past 30 days.

Earlier last week the stock touched €6.48, its lowest point in more than six months. That marks a steep fall from the 52-week high of €13.02 reached in January. The slide accelerated in mid-June, and the shares now trade nearly 15% below their 200-day moving average of €7.81 and more than 20% below the 50-day average of €8.34. Year to date, Ondas has dropped 29.18%.

The technical picture offers a glimmer of hope: the relative strength index sits at 36.7, approaching the 30 threshold that typically signals oversold conditions. Friday’s 2.62% bounce suggests some buyers are starting to test the multi‑month support zone around €6.50. But the broader trend remains firmly negative, and the annualised volatility of over 105% underscores how jittery the market is just now.

Defence deals keep piling up

While the stock struggles, Ondas continues to expand its footprint in the defence sector. The integration of Sentrycs’ “Cyber-over-RF” technology into Lockheed Martin’s Sanctum platform is a key near‑term catalyst. The partnership aims to deliver a combined counter‑unmanned aircraft system for mobile forces. Meanwhile, Ondas recently unveiled two new autonomous defence systems for the European market — “Iron Wave” and “Dual Shield” — both part of its “Autonomy at First Contact” strategy. These products will be manufactured and serviced locally through the joint venture ONBERG.

Cyberhawk acquisition targets recurring revenue

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Ondas Holdings?

The company is also betting big on software‑based income. For roughly $125 million, Ondas is acquiring drone specialist Cyberhawk, a deal expected to close in the third quarter. Cyberhawk is projected to contribute $45 million to total revenue in its first full year, with the bulk coming from long‑term software subscriptions. Management believes this will help offset the lumpy nature of government and defence contracts that have dominated the order book.

The overhang that won’t go away

None of these positives have been enough to outweigh the supply pressure hanging over the stock. Regulatory filings show that roughly 6.7 million existing shares have been registered for resale, and insider sales by company executives have compounded the selling. Every positive headline has been overshadowed by the persistent dilution risk.

August earnings as the next test

All eyes are now on the second‑quarter results due in August. Ondas has maintained its full‑year revenue target of at least $390 million, and analysts will scrutinise whether the order surge is translating into cash. The integration of Cyberhawk and the ramp‑up of European production will also be key talking points. Until then, the stock looks set to remain a high‑beta play — a combination of booming demand and a heavy share overhang that keeps the risk‑reward deeply uncertain.