The Finnish telecom-equipment giant is living through a paradox. Nokia has secured a fresh €1 billion partnership with Nvidia, won two new network deals in Europe, and seen its AI and cloud division surge 49% last quarter — yet its shares keep sliding. The stock now sits just above €10, a psychological support level that will face its sternest test when second-quarter earnings arrive on July 22.
Orange Belgium has appointed Nokia as its sole supplier for a modernisation of the operator’s optical transport network. The project will deploy Nokia’s WaveSuite AI platform, promising greater capacity and reduced operational complexity. Separately, Nokia has launched a trial with FibreCop in Italy that turns existing glass-fibre cables into environmental sensors capable of detecting landslides, floods and tremors — all powered by artificial intelligence.
These operational wins, however, have been drowned out by broader market forces. The collapse of a ceasefire agreement with Iran sent oil prices sharply higher and triggered a broad rotation out of technology stocks. Nokia has not been spared: the stock closed at €10.32 this week, down nearly 9% on the week, and has now shed about 31% from its June high of €14.97.
The divergence between the company’s strategic progress and its stock-market performance is mirrored by an unusually wide split among analysts. Danske Bank upgraded Nokia to “buy” with a €14 target, while UBS holds at “neutral” with €11. LBBW went the other way, downgrading to “sell” and setting a €9.75 price objective. Jefferies stands out as the most bullish, lifting its target from €10.70 to €13.80 on expectations that rising collaboration with hyperscale cloud providers will accelerate growth in Nokia’s IP networking and optical businesses long beyond 2026. Jefferies analyst Janardan Menon sees earnings per share in 2027 coming in 16% above the consensus. At the other extreme, Barclays keeps an “underweight” rating and a minimal €8.50 target. JP Morgan, meanwhile, maintains its “overweight” call with a €21 price objective.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
That lack of consensus has been compounded by a notable shift in ownership. In late June, Nokia disclosed that FMR LLC — the investment arm of Fidelity — had cut its voting rights below the 5% threshold, triggering a mandatory filing under Finnish securities law. Whether the move reflects a strategic reappraisal or simple portfolio rebalancing is unclear, but it adds to the nervous mood around the stock ahead of the quarterly report.
Chart watchers see little relief in the near term. The share price now stands 15.9% below its 50-day moving average of €12.08 and more than 32% off the June peak. The 14-day relative strength index of 36.7 points to fading momentum, though it has not yet entered oversold territory. With annualised volatility above 72%, the trading pattern remains choppy.
The upcoming earnings release will therefore be pivotal. Nokia has reiterated its full-year 2026 operating profit target of €2.0 billion to €2.5 billion, and guided for 12%–14% growth in network infrastructure, with optical and IP networks together expanding 18%–20%. Analysts are forecasting second-quarter earnings per share of $0.07 on revenue of $5.59 billion. The market will be watching closely to see whether the order momentum in cloud and AI contracts — including the Nvidia partnership — is translating into tangible margin improvement. Until then, the €10 mark is the line in the sand.
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