Nel ASA’s Order Book Tells a Recovery Story Its Income Statement Can’t Yet Confirm

The Norwegian electrolyser specialist has slipped into a period of corporate quietude. Since the leadership change announced in June and the second-quarter scorecard delivered on 15 July, no fresh company news has emerged to stir the shares. Oslo’s hydrogen-equipment maker now trades hands at roughly NOK 0.19, with the stock adding just over 1 percent on the latest session — a modest uptick that masks a more complicated fundamental picture.

The Order Pipeline Is Building Momentum

For investors searching for signs that the worst has passed, the intake figures offer the most compelling evidence. Nel booked NOK 230 million in new orders during the second quarter, a 224 percent surge from the NOK 71 million recorded in the same period a year earlier. The PEM division did the heavy lifting, accounting for 96 percent of the intake and lifting its backlog by NOK 147 million to NOK 990 million.

That performance rippled through the company’s total order book, which finished the quarter at NOK 1.213 billion — up 9 percent from the first quarter and sitting just 3 percent below the year-earlier level. For a business that has spent recent months navigating soft demand, the backlog trajectory points toward stabilisation rather than continued erosion.

The Income Statement Tells a Harsher Tale

Revenue from customer contracts, however, fell 12 percent year on year to NOK 153 million. The EBITDA picture was considerably more painful: the metric swung to a loss of NOK 155 million, widening from the NOK 86 million deficit posted in the second quarter of 2025.

Part of that deterioration traces to a one-off item rather than operational bleeding. A settlement with Japanese partner Iwatani cost the company NOK 70 million, a charge that weighed on the quarter’s results without reflecting the underlying health of the core business. Total revenue and other income did manage a sequential improvement, climbing from NOK 152 million in the first quarter to NOK 182 million in the second.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Management has responded to the margin pressure with cost discipline. Headcount has been trimmed 13 percent compared with the second quarter of 2025, while the balance sheet retains a sturdy cash buffer of NOK 1.328 billion. An EU grant worth NOK 118 million, earmarked for commercialising the next-generation pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform — the PA-Series unveiled in May — adds further financial runway.

A Share Price Caught Between Two Extremes

The market’s verdict on this mixed picture has been one of caution rather than conviction. The shares sit roughly 47 percent below their 52-week high of NOK 0.3655, reached at the end of May. Yet they also trade about 11 percent above the year’s low of NOK 0.1731, set in late February, suggesting the selling pressure has at least abated.

Momentum indicators point to a stock in equilibrium: the relative strength index reads 42.2, placing the shares in neutral territory without any overbought or oversold signals. Market capitalisation stands at approximately NOK 351 million, a valuation that keeps Nel well below the levels it commanded a year ago. Over the past month, the equity has slipped 2.3 percent — a decline that captures the absence of catalysts as much as any fundamental deterioration.

The Vacant Corner Office Hangs Over the Stock

The leadership question continues to shadow the share price. The June announcement of a CEO transition has produced no further details on a successor, leaving the company in a state of operational limbo. Whether the improving order intake can be converted into sustainable revenue growth will depend heavily on who ultimately takes the helm.

Until that appointment materialises, the stock looks set to track sentiment toward hydrogen plays more broadly, with technical levels providing whatever direction the market can muster. The next substantive catalyst arrives on 21 October, when Nel reports third-quarter results. That release will show whether the order momentum has carried through — and whether the cost-cutting programme has begun to filter down to the bottom line. For now, the market waits, with the order book serving as the primary yardstick by which Nel’s recovery story will be judged.