Almonty’s Tungsten Bet Now Has a Balance Sheet to Match Its Ambition

The tungsten producer that spent the past year convincing markets its turnaround was real has suddenly found itself with a different problem: convincing them the rally isn’t overdone. Almonty’s shares have retreated roughly a quarter from the €20.62 peak touched in mid-April, yet the stock still trades 91 percent higher than it did at the start of the year. For investors weighing whether to chase or fade the move, the second-quarter numbers offer a compelling starting point.

Revenue surged 498 percent year-on-year to $43.0 million, while net income swung from a $58.2 million loss in the prior-year quarter to a $181.8 million profit. Adjusted EBITDA flipped from negative $4.8 million to positive $17.6 million — an improvement of more than $22 million. The operating result from mining activities reached $26.1 million. Sequential revenue growth of 69 percent underscores that this is not a one-off accounting artifact but evidence that the Sangdong mine is now producing and selling into a market hungry for tungsten.

That demand picture is doing heavy lifting. Electrification programs, defense spending and an AI-driven appetite for raw materials have all converged on tungsten, a metal where China’s dominance has become a strategic concern for Western buyers. Jefferies this week initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $26.25 price target, naming Almonty a top pick alongside Element Solutions and citing the company’s position in the build-out of Western tungsten supply chains. The endorsement marks a shift in the narrative from turnaround story to valuation debate.

A Balance Sheet Transformed

The operational recovery is buttressed by a capital position that looked very different a year ago. Almonty closed an oversubscribed convertible bond offering of $800 million in June, lifting its cash position to C$1.2 billion. That firepower supports the expansion of the Sangdong and Browns Lake projects, along with planned capacity for downstream tungsten oxide products, without the financing overhang that once weighed on the stock.

Management has also signaled confidence in its own valuation. In August, the company launched a share buyback program covering up to 14.4 million shares — roughly 5 percent of outstanding equity — spread over three years. The move reads less as an urgent signal of undervaluation than as a statement that the board believes the stock retains substance even after its extraordinary run.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

The corporate restructuring that accompanied this financial buildup points in one clear direction: the United States. Almonty has shifted its headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana, appointed Jorge Beristain as chief financial officer in June, and executed an orderly exit from both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Australian bourse. The ASX delisting took effect this week, with the depositary interests traded there having dwindled to a fraction of overall volume. Trading now concentrates on Nasdaq and Frankfurt, a consolidation that should sharpen liquidity and visibility in the US market where Almonty’s strategic future lies.

Consolidation or Correction?

The recent pullback needs context. On a 30-day basis, the stock is still up 31 percent, and it trades 14 percent above its 50-day moving average and 17 percent above the 200-day line. The relative strength index sits at 57.3 — neither overheated nor weak, but indicative of a balanced trend following a twelve-month period in which the shares more than tripled. At Friday’s close of €15.17, the stock stands 26 percent below its April high of €20.61 but remains 333 percent above the September trough. The 2.6 percent decline over the past seven days looks more like a pause than a reversal.

What gives the consolidation its constructive character is the fundamental backdrop. The first quarter had already marked an operational inflection point, driven by sharply higher spot prices for tungsten APT and stable production at the Panasqueira operation. The second quarter built on that foundation with the kind of earnings leap that typically precedes analyst coverage upgrades rather than follows them.

That said, the risk profile remains demanding. Annualized 30-day volatility of 87 percent is multiples above what established blue-chips exhibit. A stock that has quadrupled in a year can swing violently in either direction, and the valuation now embeds considerable optimism about the Western reshoring narrative playing out as anticipated.

The distinction between this tungsten rally and earlier commodity hype cycles is that the story is now backed by verifiable numbers — a producing mine, a fortified balance sheet and a visible path to downstream capacity. The shares may no longer be cheap, but the company backing them has changed in ways that make the speculative case look considerably more grounded than it did twelve months ago.