Almonty’s Tungsten Transition Enters a New Phase — With a War Chest to Match

The gap between a mining company’s promises and its production reality is where most investment theses either harden or crack. For Almonty Industries, that gap has narrowed considerably in recent months, as the Sangdong mine in South Korea’s Gangwon Province has moved from a decade-long development story into an operating asset. Since June, the processing plant has been running on stockpiled ore, and the second-quarter numbers released alongside that ramp-up show just how quickly the financial picture has transformed.

Revenue surged 498 percent to $43.0 million in the quarter, with mining operating income reaching $26.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $17.6 million — a swing of more than $22 million compared with the same period a year earlier. Those figures mark the first tangible evidence that Sangdong is no longer a concept awaiting construction, but a facility generating measurable output.

A Balance Sheet Transformed

The operational progress has been matched by a dramatic strengthening of the company’s financial position. Almonty completed an oversubscribed $800 million convertible bond placement, leaving it with C$1.23 billion in cash as of June 30 — a substantial leap from the C$268.4 million on hand at the end of 2025. That liquidity cushion has enabled a share buyback program of up to $300 million, now running for roughly three weeks, and gives management the capacity to fund further production expansion without resorting to repeated capital raises.

The shift is significant for a company that previously depended on external financing to support Sangdong’s development. With the balance sheet now carrying the weight, the operational momentum can be self-sustaining. Jefferies acknowledged as much when it initiated coverage last Wednesday with a buy rating and a $26.25 price target, explicitly citing Almonty’s role in building Western tungsten supply chains independent of Chinese dominance.

The Long Game Behind the Headlines

Beneath the surface of the quarterly numbers and the financing activity sits a contractual foundation that speaks to the mine’s long-term viability. The offtake agreement with GTP was renegotiated and expanded back in mid-July, extending the term to 21 years and lifting the total volume by 40 percent to 4.41 million mtu, with a guaranteed minimum annual take of 210,000 mtu. Reports from the Shanghai Metals Market in early September picked up the news again, but the actual amendment is now nearly two months old — and the stock has already risen 16.3 percent since the original renegotiation.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?

What matters more than the timing is what such a commitment signals. A buyer willing to lock in for two decades and increase its minimum purchase obligations is expressing confidence in Sangdong’s ability to deliver consistently. That confidence is now being tested in practice, as the newly commissioned plant processes ore and must prove it can sustain planned output levels.

A Listing Cleanup and a Volatile Tape

Almonty has also been tidying up its corporate structure. The voluntary delisting from the Australian Securities Exchange became effective last Wednesday, following the suspension of its Australian depositary interests from trading in late August. That move came after the company ended its Toronto Stock Exchange listing at the end of July. The rationale: thin and declining volumes, with the Australian securities accounting for only about 0.80 percent of outstanding shares and a mere 0.32 to 0.47 percent of daily trading activity compared with the Nasdaq and TSX. Going forward, the shares trade exclusively on the Nasdaq and in Frankfurt.

The market’s response to all this activity has been characteristically uneven. The stock closed Friday at €15.17 in German trading, down 1.2 percent on the day and 2.6 percent for the week. Yet over the past month it has gained 31 percent, and it has more than doubled since the start of the year. The shares remain roughly a quarter below their April record of €20.61, a gap that some investors may read as valuation headroom rather than a warning sign given the fundamental momentum.

The volatility — annualized 30-day fluctuation stands at 87 percent — reflects the speculative nature of the tungsten trade. From the September low of last year, the stock has climbed 333 percent, a move that underscores both the opportunity and the risk embedded in this story. D.A. Davidson raised its price target to $33.00 with a buy recommendation back in July, though that call is now several weeks old and may no longer represent the firm’s current view. The more recent Jefferies assessment at $26.25 offers a fresher reference point, while a consensus of five houses in early September averaged a twelve-month target of $27.

The real question now is whether Sangdong can convert its early operational momentum into stable, predictable output. The contracts are signed, the cash is in place, and the plant is running. What remains is the unglamorous work of demonstrating that a newly commissioned mine can meet the expectations priced into both analyst targets and the stock’s dramatic run.