SpaceX’s Balancing Act: A Delayed Dragon, an Accelerating Starship, and a High-Stakes AI Deadline

The juxtaposition could hardly be starker. While SpaceX scrambles to fix a propulsion leak that has grounded its next crewed mission to the International Space Station, the company is simultaneously pouring resources into an artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout with a contractual deadline that leaves little room for error. The result is a company operating at full throttle on multiple fronts—and a stock that is reflecting both the promise and the friction.

Shares closed Friday at EUR 127.36, down 1.1 percent on the day, yet the pullback masks a more resilient underlying trend. The equity has gained 2.9 percent over the past week and remains firmly in positive territory over the last month, though the two source articles present differing figures for that 30-day window—one citing an 11 percent advance, the other a 36 percent surge. What both agree on is the distance still to travel: the stock sits roughly 35 percent below its mid-June peak of EUR 194.46, a gap that underscores how much optimism is already priced into the long-term narrative versus the operational hurdles of the present.

A Dragon Grounded, a Test Campaign Unfazed

The most immediate operational snag involves Crew-13, the next scheduled rotation to the ISS. A oxidizer leak discovered in the Dragon capsule’s propulsion system forced NASA and SpaceX to postpone the launch, which had been penciled in for September 12. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has indicated repairs could take anywhere from two to four weeks, pushing the mission into late September or early October. The crew—NASA astronauts Jessica Watkins and Luke Delaney, Canadian astronaut Joshua Kutryk, and Russian cosmonaut Sergey Teteryatnikov—remains assigned to the flight.

The delay, however, has done little to slow the Starship test campaign. SpaceX recently completed both single-engine and six-engine test firings on Ship 41, alongside a 33-engine static fire on Booster 21. Those components are slated for Flight 14, expected as soon as mid-September. The previous mission, Flight 13, launched in late July as the second outing of the Super Heavy V3 generation and marked the first to deploy Starlink V3 satellites, with SpaceX establishing contact with all 20 test units released during the coast phase.

The West Coast Shift and a Busy Launch Manifest

To clear the decks for Starship’s eventual debut from Florida’s east coast, SpaceX has relocated all Falcon 9 Starlink missions to its West Coast facilities. The move frees up Cape Canaveral infrastructure for the heavy-lift vehicle’s first East Coast launch, a milestone that remains in preparation. The operational tempo elsewhere shows no signs of easing: the company has already completed 104 orbital launches this year, 79 of them dedicated to the Starlink constellation. A Falcon Heavy mission earlier this month also delivered NASA’s Roman Space Telescope, a project valued at $4.3 billion, into orbit.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?

The AI Infrastructure Reckoning

The more pressing concern for investors may lie in the data center arena, where SpaceX has been forced into a leadership shakeup following months of operational shortcomings. Reports from early September indicate that facilities in Tennessee and Mississippi operated without functioning backup cooling and power systems—a lapse that prompted a management overhaul. The Memphis site, known as “Macrohard” and operated in partnership with xAI, is now under new leadership: rocket production manager Wesley Salandro and Starbase operations director Logan McConnell have stepped into senior roles, while Jake Palmer, Zach Wells, and Pablo Mendoza have departed. Michael Nicolls, previously a Starlink manager, will oversee the xAI collaboration going forward.

The timing is unforgiving. SpaceX has committed to delivering monthly GPU capacity to Google under a compute agreement valued at roughly $920 million, with a deadline of September 30. Should the company fall short and fail to catch up within a one-month grace period, Google retains the right to terminate the contract or proportionally reduce payments. The scale of the undertaking is considerable: SpaceX ended June with 1.4 gigawatts of compute capacity, up from 0.4 gigawatts a year earlier, after investing approximately $15.8 billion in the second quarter alone. Whether the company can still reach its self-imposed target of more than two gigawatts by year-end is now an open question following the management reshuffle.

Louisiana’s $100 Billion Anchor

Against the near-term turbulence, SpaceX continues to lay groundwork for its most ambitious infrastructure project to date. Together with Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, the company has announced a $100 billion investment in Starbase Louisiana, to be located in Vermilion Parish. The facility is designed to become the world’s largest spaceport, with five complexes each housing two Starship towers—ten launch pads in total. Regulatory approvals are expected within the next six months, with construction slated to begin in 2027. The two sources differ slightly on the operational timeline, with one citing first launches in 2029 and the other pointing to a 2030 start.

Defense Dollars and Analyst Confidence

The Pentagon relationship continues to deepen as well. The U.S. Space Force has awarded SpaceX two contract packages worth a combined $1.6 billion for 18 Falcon 9 launches carrying satellites for space-based reconnaissance and targeting, all to depart from Vandenberg Space Force Base by the end of 2027. The award represents the first major procurement under the Space Force’s expanded NSSL program, now valued at $17 billion, and pushes SpaceX’s total Pentagon contracting this year beyond $8 billion. The company’s role in the proposed Golden Dome missile defense shield—a priority for the Trump administration—appears increasingly central.

Analysts, for their part, remain constructive. Oppenheimer raised its price target on SpaceX from $250 to $280 in early September, a signal that the long-term growth thesis—anchored by Starship, the Louisiana expansion, and the defense pipeline—continues to outweigh the operational friction of the moment. For now, the market seems to be taking a similar view, even as the calendar pressures mount on the AI front and the Dragon repair crew works against the clock.